Today’s mail bag enters Nolan ArenadoThe future of the Cardinal, the offensive battles for the Rangers and the Red Sox, the hot starts of the Angels and the Giants, and more.
Sam asked:
Arenado has made a good start with his surface level statistics, but his batting profile is still terrible. Will he play for the Cardinal for the next 3 years unless he is injured on his contender’s third baseman?
Arenado, 34, has an excellent 136 WRC+ to 74 sets. His statistics have been average since he was traded to St. Louis four years ago. As you know, the Cardinals are trying to move Arenado during the offseason to save money and open game time for young players. When asked to approve a deal with the Astros in December, Arenado was reluctant to say “yes” and did not make a deal with the other four teams on the third baseman’s roster.
In February, Katie Woo of the sport reported that during the offseason, the Cardinal “had a conversation with at least nine organizations.” Woo said four other teams except Astros are the Dodgers, Red Sox, Padres and Yankees. The rigidity of Arenado’s list is confusing. “I can’t see myself changing this list. I have a family now. … It must be worth it to be willing to pick up my family and move,” he said. Arenado was obviously not completely geography-bound and chose teams on both the East and West Coasts. But let’s take a look at some of the playoff odds that the season opens:
- Astronaut: 53.5%
- Dodgers: 97.6%
- Red Sox: 56.2%
- Padres: 35.1%
- Yankees: 62.3%
- Cardinal: 23.2%
- Tiger: 46.6%
- Royal: 41.8%
- Angel: 10.5%
Arguably, to get Arenado out of the comfort of St. Louis, he needs a strong chance he thinks of winning the World Series, but he may accept less chances because he has a smaller chance at a team near where he grew up (such as Padres)? What makes this tricky is that Arenado seems to have developed his own playoff odds. At best, the odds in the playoffs aren’t reliable, and Arenado is probably worse than the Fanggraphs.
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