The Times’ Opinions ask our columnists to reflect on the critical moments of President Trump’s first 100 days that reveal the administration or reshape the country. Read Ezra’s Klein article below There are others.
I will break the boundaries of the hint and say that the most important (or at least the most predictive) of Donald Trump’s second term even started before it began: On July 15, 2024, he declared JD Vance as the vice president’s choice.
Runner-up is Marco Rubio and Doug Burgum – Republican representatives who existed before Trump’s 2016 campaign, and Trump may choose to rest assured about voters who doubt or fear him. Vance is the magazine movement in Rubio and Burgum’s way. Vance hates all the right people. Rubio and burgers are seen as regulating forces. Vance became an accelerator, and he believes the biggest problem with Trump’s first term was that Trump was surrounded by people who occasionally said no to him. Vance is the only one of three vice presidential contenders who said he would do something Mike Pence wouldn’t do: Refusing to prove the 2020 election results.
Vance had pole positions in the days before Trump’s choice. Later reports showed a lobbying campaign: Rupert Murdoch and his allies tried to talk to Trump to Vance, and Castle CEO Ken Griffin also tried to make Trump stand out. But Trump is influenced by other voices: Don Jr., Elon Musk and Tucker Carlson told Trump that if he chose Rubio or Burgum, he would likely be assassinated by Maga’s enemies.
This is the structure we can see in Trump’s first term, giving way to his second structure. Trump’s first administration is almost like a European Union government: Trump’s uneasy alliance with the Republicans ruled the Republican Party he had no complete control or even disliked, many of whom saw him as a harlequin, with a portion of his employees seeing his role as fixed and containing the boss’ most destructive impulses, which was his demand in an executive state that often resisted his demands. This friction frustrated Trump and many of his first allies. This is why the most terrifying prediction of his first term was largely unfulfilled, and why so many people mistakenly predicted that his second term would follow the same script.
But Trump’s second term will never follow the same script because it has a completely different structure. This is not a coalition government; this is a royal court. Trump is surrounded by courtiers, and as long as they maintain his favor, not for a moment, they will have an impact. When was the last time he heard the word “no” or was told, “I’m sorry, sir, you can’t”? During his first term, Trump was either sought or was headed toward advisers and appointments, which would reassure many of his skeptics. In his second time, his precious loyalists will do what they say and make sure others are in trouble too.
I made this argument before the election, and it turned out that one of Trump’s basic characteristics, being so sick, was his inhibitory effect. He would do it and say what others would hardly think of. During his first term, this inhibition had tensions with those around him who acted as inhibitors—who was willing to think he was a wrong or even ridiculous employee, a congressional Republican party that did not rebuild around loyalty and slavery. This tension is essential for those who think his first term is successful: Trump has pushed Republicans and bureaucracy to consider new policies and possibilities, but he is protected from enforcing his stupidest, most destructive ideas.
During his second term, Trump was surrounded by affirmatives and accelerators. His staff had no interest in Grand Ayatollah, who speculated for the second time in Maga. Congressional Republicans are introducing bills to provide Trump with a third term or carve his face to Mount Rushmore. The guardrail disappeared. JD Vance’s choice is when this structure is clear. It shows that Trump’s second term will provide no concessions and include no skeptics. The cruelty and recklessness of this presidency are designed.
