European intelligence officials warn that Russian sabotage campaign is escalating

LONDON (AP) – It was almost midnight, a truck driver sat in the cab and heard the flames cracking in the warehouse in the eastern Ukraine warehouse. He grabbed the fire extinguisher and jumped out-but realized the fire was too big and retreated.

When police arrived, they crashed into the door of a nearby apartment building and shouted to the residents to evacuate. The parents grabbed the child and ran to the street.

About 30 minutes after the fire, Dylan Earl, a British man who admitted to organizing the arson, received information from British authorities, who said he was his Russian handler.

It reads in Russian: “Great.”

On Tuesday, a British court ruled three men guilty of arson in a March 2024 plot, prosecutors said Russian intelligence services were orchestrating the case as part of a sabotage campaign by Western officials for blaming Moscow and its agents. Two other men, including the Earl, previously pleaded guilty to the crime of organizing arson.

The fire is one of more than 70 incidents related to Russia, an incident that the Associated Press has recorded since Moscow invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

Four European intelligence officials told the Associated Press that they feared the risk of serious injuries or even death was rising as untrained vandals held fires near homes and businesses, plant explosives or bomb bombs. AP’s tracking showed 12 arson or severe damage incidents last year, while two incidents in 2023 showed 12.

“When you start a campaign, it creates its own dynamics and becomes more violent over time,” said an official. The official, like two other people, discussed security matters under anonymity.

The Kremlin did not respond to a request for comment on the UK case. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov had previously said the Kremlin had never received “any evidence” charge and Russia was carrying out a sabotage campaign, saying: “Of course, we certainly reject any charges.”

Recruiting young amateurs

Most of the saboteurs accused of working on behalf of Russia are foreigners, including Ukrainians. Intelligence officials said that included young people with no criminal record, who were often hired for thousands of dollars.

Russia is forced to rely more on such amateurs as hundreds of spies in Moscow were deported from Western countries after the 2018 operation to poison former Russian intelligence officer Sergey Skripal. This led to the death of a British woman, a major reaction from the West.

Russia “must go from using cadre officials to using agents to making it more flexible and more refusable institutional changes.”

Documents shared during London warehouse trials are rare in recruiting young people.

The transcript of the information between a man prosecutor said it was Russian intelligence officers and his recruit Earl, who was active on a telegraph channel related to the Wagner Group, a mercenary organization whose business was taken over by the Russian Ministry of Defense in 2023.

Kevin Riehle, lecturer in intelligence and national security at Brunel University in London, said Russian military intelligence (acting through Wagner) is likely to be behind.

Riehle told the court that recruiters (robots that use handle museum robots) have posted multiple times on the Telegram channel, requiring people to participate in the battle with the West.

According to screenshots on his phone, once connected, the recruiter and the Count communicated with the Count mainly in Russia. Their information ranges from deadly seriousness to almost comics.

The recruiter told the Count that he was 21, “although young, he was wise and smart” and suggested that he watch the TV show “American” – intelligence officers about the USSR

“This will be your manual,” the recruiter wrote.

In one message, the Count boasted – unconfirmed – to contact the IRA, “killer, kidnapper, soldier, drug dealer, fraudster, car thief”, promising to be “the best spy ever”.

The potential for injury

The Count and another man eventually recruited others who went to the warehouse on fire night. According to information shared in court, the Earl has never seen these people, and it is not clear whether he has visited the website in person.

Once at the warehouse, one of the men poured a glass of gasoline and threw the rag onto the fuel. Another recorded arson on his cell phone. It was also captured on CCTV.

The warehouse is home to mail-order companies that send supplies to Ukraine, including Starlink equipment that satellites provide the internet and are used by the country’s military.

About half of the warehouse’s contents were destroyed by the fire, only a few meters (yards) from truck driver Yevhen Harasym and not far from the outbuilding of the yard of the house and apartment building.

More than 60 firefighters responded.

“I started knocking on the door and everyone’s door screamed at the top of the lungs, ‘There’s fire, there’s fire, get out!'” Tessa Ribera Fernandez, who lives on the street with her 2-year-old son, told the court.

A sport is becoming increasingly dangerous

Senior European intelligence officials said that when Russian jamming campaigns began after the Russian invasion, destructiveism, including destructive monuments or graffiti, were more common.

“In the past year, it has developed into arson and assassination,” the official said.

Other incidents related to Russia have the potential to cause serious injury or death in Russia, including a conspiracy to place explosive devices on cargo planes – packages lit on the ground, and plots of land set on shopping malls in Poland, Latvia and Lithuania.

Lithuanian prosecutors said Ukrainian teenagers were part of a plan to plant bombs in IKEA stores outside the Vilnius capital last year.

In the early morning, it triggered a fire. No one was injured.

More Fire and Kidnapping Episodes

Shortly after the London fire, the Earl and his accomplices discussed what they were going to do next, according to the court.

They talked about burning London business owned by Evgeny Chichvarkin, a Russian tycoon who provided supplies to Ukraine.

The Earl said hedonistic wines and restaurant skins should become “ashes”.

In the news, the Count played a role between saying they didn’t “need” any casualties and if they “want to hurt someone”, they could put nails in a homemade explosive device. He pointed out that there are houses above the hotel.

This reflects the phenomenon pointed out by senior intelligence officials: middlemen sometimes come up with ideas – everyone is “better” and more dangerous.

Lotta Hakala, senior analyst at Finland Security and Intelligence Services, said that while Russian intelligence services try to maintain “strict operational control” (giving targets, deciding equipment and requiring recruits to record destructive power), sometimes “control is not persistent.”

That seems to be what happened in London.

After the fire, Russian recruiters told the Count that he was “rushing to burn these warehouses without my approval.”

So, he said: “It would be impossible to pay for this arson.”

Still, the recruiter told the Count that he wanted to target more businesses with Ukraine.

“You are our dagger in Europe and we will cut you carefully,” the recruiter wrote. “We will then start using you in serious battles.”