October 17: Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports Detroit is offering four years after 2024 for less than $100.
October 16: The Tigers are now entering the final season of controlling the American League’s best pitching staff. Tarik Skubal Heading into his final year of arbitration, he is expected to receive the largest pitching contract in history if he stays healthy.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote tonight that Skubal may seek a deal worth at least $400. Heyman reported that Detroit’s extension offer last offseason was less than $170. Garrett Crochet Received from Red Sox in April. Heyman points to Tigers offer coming forward Crochet extensions.
A gap of more than $200MM between those two numbers would be of great concern, but that doesn’t take into account the timing of Detroit’s offer. Now that the sub-$200 proposal is approaching, management is certainly under no illusions. Their previous offer came when Skubal was two years away from free agency and before Hooker had precedent.
Last offseason, it was unclear whether Crochet would sign as strong a contract as he did. For a pitcher with four to five years of service time, this contract is nearly $50MM more expensive than the previous top-tier extension (Jacob deGrom $120.5MM contract with Mets starting in 2019). The Red Sox certainly don’t have any regrets after Crochet’s dominant 25 seasons, but this deal gives a big boost to the extension market. While it’s unclear exactly what Detroit has to offer, it’s a safe bet that it’s just north of deGrom’s stretch and will be a record in his service class before Hooker signs.
Skubal bet on himself and was able to make a real profit. He would win his second straight AL Cy Young Award with a 2.21 ERA and 241 strikeouts in 31 starts. He’s been two and a half seasons removed from season-ending flexor surgery in 2022. On top of that, he’s now 12 months away from hitting the open market.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto When he signed with the Dodgers for $325, he received the largest guaranteed pitcher’s money in MLB history. This is largely due to the unique circumstances of his coming over from Japan. He is the consensus pitching ace in the NPB and is widely regarded as one of the two best pitchers (along with Paul Skenes) had not yet pitched in Major League Baseball (MLB). Yamamoto joined the team before his age-25 season, earlier than any MLB ace could earn the six years of service time required to become a free agent. He signed a 12-year contract, three years longer than any other pitcher’s contract.
Among domestic free agent pitchers, Gerrit Cole The record was the nine-year, $324 contract he signed with the Yankees. Cole has yet to win a Cy Young Award but has two consecutive top-five finishes. He hits the market at age 29, and Skubal is expected to be a free agent at age 30. Cole’s contract is six years old, so it will definitely be adjusted for inflation.
Cole’s average annual net worth of $36 set a record for a pitcher at the time. Now down to sixth place – excluding Shohei Ohtani Transaction – once a year. Late career ace Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Zach Wheeler Each has a two- or three-year contract worth $42MM or more. DeGrom earns $37MM per year in five-year contract with Texas Blake Snell The Dodgers make $36.4MM per season (although extensions have brought the current net AAV down to the $31-32MM range).
These are free agent precedents. MLBTR writer Matt Swartz projects Skubal’s salary in his final arbitration year to be $17.8MM. Detroit won’t get much of a discount on an extension, but a long-term deal this offseason will come with the risk of him getting injured next year.
The Tigers have signed two contracts worth over $200MM: prince field free agency trades and Miguel Cabrera Franchise extension worth up to $248MM. They are both more than a decade old and owned by the late Mike Ilitich. Since his son Christopher Ilitch took over the organization in 2017, they have signed a deal worth nine figures – $140 Javier Baez Add to. Aside from Baez’s $24MM salary over the next two seasons, Detroit’s long-term salary outlook is relatively positive. Jack Flaherty Has a $20MM player option for 2026, and Colt Keith The contract price over the next four years is $4-5MM.
[Related Poll: Should The Tigers Consider A Skubal Trade?]
With enough cap space, the Tigers could conceivably make a competitive extension offer to Skubal. If negotiations don’t progress, they’ll need to decide whether to keep him for one final season or consider the possibility of a trade. Detroit made back-to-back playoff appearances and controlled the AL Central for most of the 25-season season. If the Tigers were to trade Skubal, it’s hard to imagine them being a legitimate contender in 2026, even if they build a return around controllable major league talent. There’s a strong case to be made for simply keeping Skubal, hoping he can lead the team to the playoffs and make a qualifying offer next winter. If they don’t perform well in the first half, he’ll be a trade chip at the deadline.
Another option this offseason is to follow the respective precedents of the Red Sox, Padres and Astros Mookie Bates, Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker. Each of those teams traded him before their superstar’s final season in arbitration. This is very bad for Boston. San Diego has been very good with Soto back, winning at least 90 games in each of the past two seasons. There is no final decision yet on the trade of Houston Tucker. Their three-man lineup was strong but failed to make the playoffs this year. These teams are all dealing with short-term salary constraints that come with ownership, which shouldn’t be an issue for Detroit since they have so little money on their books.
President of baseball operations Scott Harris did not answer when asked about Skubal’s future during the Tigers’ end-of-season press conference on Monday. “I can’t comment on our players being traded … so I’m going to respond by not actually commenting,” Harris said. “Tariq is a tiger. I hope he wins the Cy Young Award for the second straight year. He’s an unbelievable pitcher and we’re lucky to have him.”
