The Kuomintang is in a new era. Their rebuild stalled, leading the team to fire president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez. Paul Toboni is now leading the front office for the first time, while the club has brought in new head coach Blake Butera, 33. It’s easy to imagine Toboni making a few big trades to add a needed influx of talent to the farm system.
“Our job now is to bring as much value as possible to the organization,” the new president of baseball operations said at the general manager meeting (link via Spencer Nussbaum of The Washington Post ). “No matter what it looks like, we’re going to be disciplined.” The most obvious place is in the conversation with Lefty Mackenzie Gore and shortstop CJ Abrams. Gore’s arbitration control period is reduced to two years, and MLBTR writer Matt Swartz projects Gore’s salary to be $4.7MM. Abrams’ $5.6MM forecast is slightly higher, but he still has three years of control.
This feels like a good time to unseat Al Gore. Any team in a short competitive window could be interested. He’s at least a reliever with the upside of a No. 2 starter. The Nationals have access to two-thirds of the league’s players on his availability.
Whether to trade Abrams is a tougher decision. The Nationals presumably hope to contend for a playoff spot in three years. Position players are at less risk of injury than pitchers. The Nationals may view the 25-year-old shortstop as a core player they’re more or less unwilling to trade. Abrams, meanwhile, has been maddeningly inconsistent over the past few seasons. He’s a talented athlete but prone to defensive mistakes. It might just depend on how the Toboni-led front office that didn’t acquire Abrams views the player.
Abrams hit .257/.315/.433 with 19 home runs in 635 games. He’s hit 18-20 long balls in each of the past three seasons. Abrams has had 31 steals in back-to-back seasons and ranks sixth in MLB with 109 steals since the start of 2023. He doesn’t move around much, but he puts the ball in play with his velocity out the middle. At his best, he looks like a top-tier spark plug. He’s coming off a second straight season in which he’d only been at the same level for a few months. Abrams was a star through the first half of the past two years, but his production dipped twice after the All-Star break.
His defense isn’t easily suppressed either. Abrams certainly has the size and athleticism of a shortstop. However, he is too prone to making mistakes. Ellie de la Cruz More mistakes have been made over the past few seasons. Most of them are related to poor accuracy. Abrams has been charged with 18 throwing errors this year, three more than anyone else. He has committed 38 throwing errors over the past three seasons. As one would expect, given all the error proneness, Statcast rates Abrams as the worst defensive shortstop in the sport by far.
Other teams may feel differently about Abrams’ defensive projection. Presumably there are some who don’t think he’s viable at shortstop and will only consider him at second base or as a potential center field switch. Others may think that throwing issues can be fixed with mechanical adjustments. They may also be motivated by a degree of desperation given the lack of alternatives. Beau Bichette Can command over 200MM and faces his own defensive issues. Only one team can sign Kim Ha Sungand he simply doesn’t have the offensive ceiling that Abrams does. There aren’t many clear options on the trade front.
If the Nationals were to trade Abrams, which clubs should make the biggest push? Let’s divide them into groups. Teams within each level are listed in alphabetical order.
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