This week’s mailbag entry Grayson Rodriguez–Tyler Ward Trade, four accepted qualified offers, trade value Jalen Duran and Villier Abreu,etc.
Nick asked:
Hi Mike Elias What do you think about the Grayson sale? Ward is a decent hitter, but not a great hitter, and Rodriguez’s ceiling is an ace. You guys have been calling for Singer to be swapped for Ward, and I feel like four years of Rodriguez, even if he’s injured, is worth more than one year of Singer.
Zach asked:
Honestly, what’s going on with trading Grayson Rodriguez? ! ?
In making the trade, Orioles president of baseball operations and general manager Mike Elias made a big bet on Rodriguez.
When the Orioles drafted Rodriguez out of high school with the 11th overall pick in 2018, they were still months away from replacing Dan Duquette with Elias as director of baseball operations. So Elias wasn’t involved in this draft, but he’s very familiar with Rodriguez’s career and health history.
Rodriguez was once one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his injuries began with a Grade 2 lat strain in 2022, which sidelined him for three months and delayed his expected major league debut. In 2023, he was healthy and had some success in the majors, totaling 165 innings — the only time in his career that he topped 117.
Rodriguez missed 19 days in May 2024 due to shoulder inflammation, and then his season ended on July 31 of that year due to what was initially called a mild lat strain. No one could have imagined that Rodriguez’s stellar start against the Blue Jays would end his Orioles career before his 25th birthday.
The big right-hander is said to be unrestricted entering 2025 and claims he was not injured when his velocity dropped during spring training. But in March, he was diagnosed with elbow inflammation, which was aggravated by another “mild lat strain” in April. Rodriguez was initially thought to return in the second half, but he suffered elbow discomfort while recovering and was suspended. After collecting multiple opinions, Rodriguez’s 2025 season ended with right elbow debridement surgery on August 11.
As Matt Weirich of The Baltimore Sun reported, Elias described Rodriguez’s health in late September: “There’s nothing medically to indicate he’s not ready, he’s very determined and not happy with what happened last year.” Elias expressed some caution but ultimately said, “I’m optimistic about the situation.” The surgery involved removing bone fragments from Rodriguez’s elbow.
Rodriguez was interviewed by reporters yesterday. Here’s an excerpt from Jeff Fletcher of the OC Register:
Rodriguez said he’s “absolutely” confident he’ll be able to play a full season this year. He said bone spurs have been an issue for “three or four years,” and he believes they contributed to the lat injury. “Just being able to get that stuff out of there, my arm feels great right now,” Rodriguez said. “Without a doubt, I’m ready for spring training. “
I’m looking for an explanation as to why the pitching-needy Orioles would take a pre-arbitration mid-rotation starter with 238 2/3 pretty decent major league innings to his name and retain four years of team control in exchange for an outfielder with what looks like 2.5 WAR a year at best.
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