After Proposition 50, San Diego could lose only Republican in Congress as Democrats target Issa

Eleven Democrats are vying to unseat Rep. Darrell Issa, R-San Diego, after California’s redistricting measure turned his reliably red district into a slightly blue one that will become a key swing race in next year’s midterm elections.

Rep. Mike Levin, D-San Clemente, can breathe a sigh of relief because Proposition 50 draws new lines that make his Democratic swing district safer.

The new voting map reflects California’s attempt to offset Texas’ efforts to secure House control by adding five Republican seats in November. California voters approved the redistricting plan proposed in Proposition 50 in a special election this month by nearly 20 percentage points.

Both redistricting efforts are embroiled in litigation. A federal court on Tuesday blocked Texas from using its new maps, arguing they would harm the state’s Black and Latino voters. Last week, the U.S. Justice Department filed a lawsuit seeking to overturn California’s maps, saying it illegally considered Latino voters in new districts.

If California’s redistricting plan survives this challenge, new voting maps could help Democrats flip San Diego’s only Republican seat. Based on voter registration, the 48th Congressional District, represented by Issa, will shift from a 12-point Republican advantage to a 4-point Democratic advantage.

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The more favorable odds have attracted a wide range of challengers, including Issa’s former opponent Ammar Campa-Najjar, San Diego City Council member Marni von Wilpert and several contenders from the Coachella Valley.

The passage of the redistricting measure sparked a statewide game of musical chairs that brought chairs and players alike into action.

The current 48th District covers conservative East County San Diego neighborhoods. The new district moved west and north, losing much of the backcountry and adding the cities of Escondido, San Marcos and Vista in northern San Diego County. It also includes ultra-liberal Palm Springs in Riverside County, where Democratic voters outnumber Republican voters by more than 4-to-1.

The new lines absorb part of Riverside County’s current 41st District, represented by longtime Republican Rep. Ken Calvert. His current district will move entirely to Los Angeles and Orange counties, so Calvert plans to run against Republican Rep. Young Kim in the new 40th District in Riverside and Orange counties.

Meanwhile, three Coachella Valley Democrats who are among eight challengers to Calvert in the Riverside County district have now joined the race against Issa. Attorney Anuj Dixit, school board member Abel Chavez and entrepreneur Brandon Riker have all moved on to campaign for the new 48th District. Another Palm Springs candidate, Navy veteran and bartender Marc Iannarino, is also involved. Political observers note that the Coachella Valley candidates come from smaller, more liberal parts of the new district.

“These three candidates really understand Palm Springs, but they have to reach out to moderates, purple voters and understand who San Diego voters are,” said Dan Rottenstreich, von Wilpert’s campaign manager.

“This is not a dark blue seat,” Rottenstretch said. “This will be one of the most competitive top-five games in the country.”

Who can win the swing contest?

Von Wilpert and Campa-Najjal are the two most high-profile contenders, and both believe they are the best candidates to harness their party’s slim majority.

Both have notable endorsements. Former Sen. Barbara Boxer, numerous state and local leaders and Emily’s List, the Democratic women’s political action committee, have endorsed von Wilpert. A series of members of Congress, including San Diego Reps. Mike Levin, Scott Peters and Sara Jacobs, are involved in Campa-Najjal’s campaign.

All challengers face a mature incumbent district that, despite its partisan switch, will remain a tough call.

Von Wilpert, a former prosecutor in the San Diego City Attorney’s Office, won a City Council seat in 2020, running against a Republican opponent in a conservative district, Rottenstreich said.

“With these new lines, CA-48 becomes one of the most competitive races in the country and a must-win seat to flip the House,” Von Wilpert said in a statement on Election Day. “I am the only candidate in this race who has proven that he can win hard elections, flip red seats blue and deliver results for working families.”

Campa-Najjar, a Navy officer and former Obama campaign official, believes his experience running against Issa in 2020 positions him to win Democratic and independent votes in new districts.

“I think it’s a rematch between me and Darrell Issa and 10 other candidates,” he said. “I’m not going to compete with them. I have a lot of respect for them, but only one of us is going to win.”

Despite losing in 2020, Campa-Najjar said he gained a foothold in conservative districts, receiving more votes than expected in heavily Republican districts.

Can Issa keep his seat?

Issa has served in various congressional districts for more than 20 years. He originally served in the 49th District (now represented by Levine) from 2001 to 2019, retiring when the district became competitive. He won his current seat in 2020 and will hold it for the next two terms following 2021 statewide redistricting.

Issa declined to answer questions from CalMatters, but in a statement, he called Proposition 50 an “unprecedented, purely partisan campaign that pits neighbor against neighbor and divides the country like never before.”

Still, Issa said he plans to run again: “I’m not going anywhere. I will continue to represent the people of California — no matter what political party they belong to or where they live.”

The general election will reflect how voters feel about President Trump; historically, the president’s party typically loses midterm elections. Kussel said Issa is a close ally of Trump who supports the president’s policies and nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize, a record she will have to rely on.

“He has to embrace his base and prove to centrists that a Trump presidency is good for their districts,” he said.

Kusel said the crowded field of Democrats could frustrate some candidates in the primary. But it could benefit the party in next November’s election, forcing challengers to campaign early and win over voters.

“Whoever becomes the Democratic nominee will be battle-tested in this district,” he said.

Coastal swing zone shifts left

The redistricting measure also shored up vulnerable Democratic seats, including Levine’s 49th District. It moved south, adding the San Diego coastal communities of La Jolla and Torrey Pines. Sixty-five percent of the current district now belongs to San Diego County; in the new district, that percentage climbs to 81 percent, Levin said.

With that came more Democratic voters and even more left-leaning voters. The current Democratic voter registration rate in the district is only 2%. Under the new standard, this number jumps to 4%. But when you compare former Vice President Kamala Harris’ vote share to Trump’s in last year’s election, the Democratic advantage jumps to 12%.

That makes Levine more secure in his re-election bid. His opponent is Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, as well as two other Republicans and an independent candidate.

“The district’s southward shift makes it bluer in terms of Democratic registration and the political leanings of independents,” said Paul Mitchell, a political data expert who mapped California’s new voting lines. “So that area was a big step up for him.”

Sullivan Brennan writes for CalMatters.