As Californians decide the fate of Proposition 50, Republican states push for their own redistricting plans

Washington—— The hasty push to reshape California’s congressional districts has drawn national attention and a flood of money and renewed hope among Democrats that the move could help counter a wave of Republican redistricting launched by President Trump.

But if Democrats succeed in California, the question remains: Will it be enough to change the balance of power in Congress?

To regain control of the House, Democrats need to flip three Republican seats in next year’s midterm elections. That narrow margin prompted the White House this summer to urge Republicans to redraw maps in Republican states to keep Democrats in the minority.

Texas was the first state to say it would follow Trump’s edict, setting off a rare mid-decade redistricting arms race that quickly drew attention from California, where Gov. Gavin Newsom enacted Proposition 50 to tap into the state’s vast stockpile of congressional seats.

Californians appear poised to approve the measure on Tuesday. If they do, Democrats could gain five seats in the House, a result that would largely offset Republican efforts to pass the state in Texas.

While Democrats and Republicans in other states have also moved to redraw maps, it’s too early to tell which party will see a net gain or to predict voter sentiment a year from now, as a lopsided election in either direction could make redrawing irrelevant.

Republican leaders in North Carolina and Missouri approved new maps that could create a new Republican seat in each map, Ohio Republicans could gain two more seats in the newly redrawn maps approved Friday, and Republican leaders in Indiana, Louisiana, Kansas and Florida are considering or taking steps to redraw their maps. Experts who track redistricting efforts say the moves could bring a total of at least 10 new seats to Republicans.

To address the problem, Virginia Democrats passed a constitutional amendment that, if approved by voters, would give lawmakers the power and option to draw new maps before next year’s election. Illinois leaders are weighing redistricting options, and New York has filed a lawsuit seeking to redraw Republican-controlled districts. But concerns about legal challenges have weakened the party’s efforts in Maryland, while the potential dilution of black votes has slowed action in Illinois.

So far, the partisan strategy appears to be working in Republicans’ favor.

“Democrats can’t gerrymander their way out of gerrymandering. The math just doesn’t add up,” said David Daly, a senior fellow at the nonprofit FairVote. “They didn’t have enough chances or enough goals.”

Complicating factors facing Democrats

Democrats have more than just political calculations to weigh. In many states, they are hampered by constitutional limitations, statutory deadlines and the reality that many state maps can no longer be easily redrawn for partisan gain. In California, Proposition 50 marked a departure from the state’s commitment to independent redistricting.

The hesitation by Democrats in states such as Maryland and Illinois also underscores simmering tensions within the party as Democrats try to maximize their partisan advantage and build a House majority that could thwart Trump in his final two years in office.

“Despite deep frustration about the state of our nation, Maryland’s midterm redistricting presents a reality where the legal stakes are too high, the timeline for action is dangerous, the downside risks to Democrats are catastrophic, and the certainty of our existing maps will be compromised,” Maryland Senate President Bill Ferguson wrote in a letter to state lawmakers last week..

In Illinois, black Democrats have raised concerns about the plans and pledged to oppose maps that would reduce the share of black voters in congressional districts where they have historically prevailed.

“I can’t just look at this as a short-term fight. I have to think about the long-term consequences of this,” said state Sen. Willie Preston, chairman of the Illinois Senate Black Caucus.

Exacerbating those concerns is the possibility that the Supreme Court’s conservative majority could weaken a key provision of the landmark Voting Rights Act and limit lawmakers’ ability to consider race when redrawing maps. The outcome and its impact on the 2026 midterm elections will depend largely on the timing and scope of the court’s ruling.

The court has been asked to rule on the case by January, but a decision may come later. Timing is crucial because many states have filing deadlines for 2026 congressional races or hold primaries in the spring and summer.

If the court strikes down the provision, known as Section 2, advocacy groups estimate Republicans could gain at least a dozen House seats in southern states.

“I think all of these things will contribute to the Legislature’s decision,” said Kareem Crayton, vice president of the Brennan Center for Justice, adding that the looming court ruling “adds an additional layer of uncertainty in an already uncertain time.”

Republican-led states forge ahead

Support for Proposition 50 brought in more than $114 million, drew support from some of the party’s biggest names, including former President Obama, and provided momentum for Democrats hoping to regain control of Congress after the midterm elections.

In an email to supporters on Monday, Newsom said the fundraising goal had been met and asked supporters to join efforts in other states.

“I will ask you to help other states – Indiana, North Carolina, South Carolina and others are all trying to block Republican mid-decade redistricting efforts. More news soon,” Newsom wrote.

Indiana Republican Gov. Mike Braun called the special session, set to begin Monday, to “protect Hoosiers from attempts by other states to diminish their voice in Washington and ensure their representation in Congress is equitable.”

In Kansas, the Republican state Senate chairman said last week there were enough Republican signatures in the House to call a special session to redraw the state’s maps. Republicans in the state House of Representatives will need to make commensurate efforts to move forward.

In Louisiana, Republicans who control the Legislature voted last week to postpone the state’s 2026 primary. The move is intended to give lawmakers more time to redraw the maps in the event of a Supreme Court ruling in a federal voting case.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, said the state could join a mid-decade redistricting campaign if the justices strike down the practice of gerrymandering along racial lines.

Shaniqua McClendon, director of Vote Save America, said Republicans’ broad redistricting efforts highlight why Democrats should follow California’s lead — even if they don’t like the tactic.

“Democrats have to get serious about what’s at stake. I know they don’t like the tactics, but we have to think about the consequences,” McClendon said. “We have to be able to take back the House — that’s the only way we can hold Trump accountable.”

In New York, a lawsuit filed last week alleging that congressional districts disenfranchised Black and Latino voters is a “Hail Mary” for Democrats hoping to improve their chances in the 2026 midterm elections, FairVote’s Daley said.

Dave Wasserman, a congressional forecaster for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said Utah could also provide Democrats with an outside chance of picking up seats. A court ruling this summer required Utah Republican leaders to redraw the state’s congressional maps, setting up the possibility that Democrats could flip two districts.

Wasserman described the various redistricting efforts as “an arms race…Democrats are using what Republicans are doing in Texas as justification for California, and Republicans are using California as justification for their actions in other states.”

“Political tribalism”

Some political observers say the California results could inspire more political maneuvering in other states.

“I think the passage of Proposition 50 in California could show other states that when voters are under attack, they may support mid-decade redistricting if necessary,” said Jeffrey Wice, a professor at New York Law School. “I think it will certainly provide momentum for places like New York moving forward.”

Like California, New York would require voters to approve a constitutional amendment, but that cannot be done in time for the midterm elections.

“It might also embolden those Republican states that have been hesitant about redistricting to say, ‘If California voters support mid-decade redistricting, maybe they’ll support it here, too,'” Wise said.

For Eric Nisbet, director of the Center for Communication and Public Policy at Northwestern University, the idea that mid-decade redistricting trends are gaining traction is part of a broader problem.

“This is a symptom of a 20-year trend of increasing polarization and political tribalism,” he said. “Unfortunately, our tribalism is exploding now, not just among each other but among states.”

He believes that both sides are sacrificing democratic norms, procedural fairness and the ideals of representative democracy for political gain.

“I’m worried about what the end result of this is going to be,” he said.

Ceballos reported from Washington, and Mehta reported from Los Angeles.