Labour has come a long way since the landslide victory last summer.
They demonstrated how severe the challenge of reform is, and they were leading the vote throughout February. The two major political parties have not been eliminated for more than 100 years.
Can reform win the next election?
According to law, the next election must be released on August 21, 2029. The road ahead is long and everything can be changed.
Will Labor find big strides? Will conservatives rebound from the worst failures in history? The momentum of reform will be over the past five years, if so, can Nigel Farage win enough seats to become the next prime minister?
How do we get data?
To answer these questions, the Telegram has collected a series of polls approved by the British Voting Committee.
These are transparent, reliable and respected institutions such as Yougov, Opinium and Redfield and Wilton.
The results of each survey released since July 2024 have been reported by the pollsters’ last performance and the scores obtained from the UK election database and the size of the sample. The trend line shown is the result of local regression.
How to break down support for all parties
In the days after the last election, Yougov sampled more than 35,000 voters to see how support from different bases changed.
On Election Day, right-leaning women proved to be less reluctant than men to be associated with the Conservative Party’s rebellious reforms. Recent polls show that female voters are increasingly winning.
The dividing line of age is also blurred: support for reform is growing among all population groups, but the surge among young people is the strongest.
Support for conservatives remains strong with pensioners, but Farage’s grip is also tightening this age group. At the same time, labor is being passed down from generation to generation.
We know exactly how many votes the votes were voted for at parties in various corners of the UK.
Labour’s share has declined across the country. The latest poll shows a leading position reform in the central and southern regions outside London.
The lattice Cymru and SNP have also successfully taken advantage of the decline of the ruling party in Wales and Scotland.
How does Starmer perform as a PM?
The Prime Minister’s honeymoon is very short. Last July, he was a neutral figure in the public’s eyes – many reported that he had a bad view of him – making him one of the most popular party leaders of the time.
But this changed quickly. By October, he was more negative than the infamous split Nigel Farage.
How many seats can be reformed in an election?
There has been a long, long, imbalance between the share of the state and the number of seats in the House of Commons. 2024 is the most biased election in history when comparing vote stocks and seats wins.
It is not easy to predict the winners of 650 constituency-level competitions. In recent years, pollsters have adopted content called MRP – representing “multi-level regression and post-layering”.
These combine a large card with over 10,000 sample sizes, along with a range of characteristic data about the local population, from gender and age to education level and voting history.
How accurate is the poll?
Every poll has a certain degree of uncertainty. Although all polls work to interrogate representative samples and weight results reflect the composition of a wider country, there is inevitably room for error.
In fact, the true position of a particular poll may fall within 2 points of the cited number.
Each poller also has a custom method of determining the intent of the title voting. The exact wording of the question may vary, just like the way you answer “don’t know”.
Research shows that a summary of “polls” helps alleviate potential biases created by individual pollsters.
