Can these six California Republican House members survive their new districts?
Republicans in California’s Congress far outnumber the state’s Democratic counterparts, and things could get worse.
California voters approved Proposition 50 in a special election on Tuesday, putting five of nine Republican seats at risk. The measure, brought to a vote by the Democratic-led state Legislature, reshapes California’s congressional districts in a way specifically designed to unseat Republican incumbents.
The new map targets districts controlled by Northern California Reps. Kevin Keeley and Doug LaMalfa, Central Valley Rep. David Valadao and Southern California Reps. Ken Calvert, Young Kim and Darrell Issa. Radical realignment not only puts Republicans at risk but could also protect vulnerable Democratic officials by adding more voters from their own party to the reorganized districts.
Currently, California Republicans hold only 9 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, while Democrats hold 43 seats.
The passage of Proposition 50 also set off an intra-party fight over newly created Republican seats in Riverside and Orange counties, which would pit two Republican incumbents — Calvert of Corona and King of Anaheim Hills — against each other to unseat one of them. Calvert and King announced their plans to run for the seat Wednesday.
“With the passage of Proposition 50, Californians get a bill of goods that allows [Gov.] Gavin Newsom and his radical allies in Sacramento have seized power in an unprecedented effort to redraw the congressional map and silence those who disagree with his extreme policies. ” Calvert said in a statement posted on social media late Tuesday.
Newsom and other Democratic leaders argued that redistricting by independent commissions, which typically occurs every decade, was necessary after Texas Republican leaders redrawed their own congressional districts at President Trump’s request to add more seats to their party and maintain Republican control of the House.
Passage of Proposition 50 would propel Democrats to win control of the House of Representatives after the 2026 election, a victory that could kill parts of Trump’s agenda and expose the president and his administration to a series of congressional investigations.
Proposition 50 is expected to exacerbate the political isolation already felt by millions of California Republicans, particularly in the state’s vast northern and interior regions and conservative suburban enclaves.
Last year, Trump won 38% of the presidential vote in California. About a quarter of the state’s registered voters are Republicans. Since 2011, however, Democrats have held every statewide office and have an iron grip on California’s congressional delegation.
Some California Republicans may be asking: “Who represents our views in Congress and who should we turn to for help?” said Mark Baldassare, director of investigations at the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California.
The Cook Political Report, which tracks elections, changed its race ratings in California’s 11 congressional districts on Tuesday, moving all but one in favor of Democrats.
Political consultant Rob Stutzman remains skeptical that Democrats can win all five congressional seats Newsom is targeting in the 2026 midterm elections. Stutzman said some Republican representatives have deep roots in the community and have survived past Democratic challenges.
Stutzman said Newsom and others “may have overpromised what Proposition 50 would do.”
Here are the top six Republicans who changed districts because of Proposition 50 and may find their political futures at risk.
Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Richvale)
In Northern California, La Malfa appears likely to run in one of two redesigned areas: one stretching into the Mendocino National Forest and south to Santa Rosa, and another along the Oregon border and along the coast to the San Francisco Bay Area.
His current district, which spans California’s ultra-conservative northeastern corner to the suburbs of Sacramento, was carved up by Proposition 50 and replaced by three districts that favored Democrats.
“They’re not going to kidnap my district without a fight,” LaMalfa, 65, said Tuesday.
Democrats running for the Congressional District 1 seat, which includes the Mendocino National Forest, include Audrey Denney, an education superintendent who unsuccessfully challenged LaMalfa in 2018 and 2020.
Rep. Kevin Kelly (R-Rocklin)
Kelly’s new district covers Sacramento and its surrounding areas, attracting Democratic voters and losing former Republican communities along the Nevada border.
He recently told The Times he believed he could still win with the new map, but didn’t reveal which region he would pursue.
On Tuesday night, he pledged to “reach across party lines to find national solutions to age-old gerrymandering issues, particularly those that emerged in the middle of the decade.”
Kelly told reporters Wednesday morning that he was still evaluating his options. “My district right now is drawn six different ways,” Kelly, 40, said Wednesday. “In that sense, I have a lot of options.”
Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford)
After Proposition 50, the predominantly Latino district of Valada in the Central Valley expanded northward, attracting more registered Democrats.
Still, given the region’s conservative attitudes, more Democratic voters don’t necessarily mean a Democratic victory. Valadao, a 48-year-old dairy farmer, has survived past challenges in part because of low Democratic turnout and his popularity among moderate voters in the Central Valley.
Visalia School Board Trustee Randy Villegas, a Democrat, is among those who have announced their intention to challenge Valada.
Valadao was one of the few Republicans to vote to impeach President Trump after his supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, increasing his appeal to Democratic voters. But he may also be vulnerable because of his support for Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” which slashed health care benefits for about two-thirds of voters. The representative believes his region will receive concessions in the legislation for rural hospitals, water infrastructure and agricultural investment.
A Varada spokesman did not immediately respond to a request for comment Tuesday evening.
Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Rep. Young Kim (R-Anaheim Hills)
Nearly all of Calvert moved north and now includes the Los Angeles County communities of Pomona, Ontario and Fontana.
However, Calvert, 72, announced he would run for the newly created 40th Congressional District, which encompasses western Riverside County and eastern Orange County, including his hometown of Corona, as well as Murrieta and Mission Viejo. It’s a strongly Republican district now shared by King, a fellow Republican from Anaheim Hills.
“Calverts in the newly drawn 40th District deserve a trusted conservative and a fighter who has delivered results for Riverside and Orange Counties for decades,” Calvert said in a statement Wednesday. “No one can match my record of service to the new 40th District. I have lived here my entire life and have represented the majority of this district in Congress.”
Calvert praised Trump’s economic record and efforts to “secure our borders,” a direct appeal to the president’s “Make America Great Again” base who live in the area.
Michael Moodian, a public policy fellow at Chapman University, predicts Calvert will face a “tough battle” if he faces Kim Jong Un in the 2026 election.
Calvert is the longest-serving Republican member of California’s congressional delegation and is well-known among voters in the area, while King is a strong fundraiser who has a moderate tone given the political divisions in her current district, Moodyan said.
Kim, 63, was one of the first Korean-American women elected to Congress, winning a third term last year.
King boasted Wednesday that she is one of the most prominent Republican fundraisers in Congress and has a proven track record of winning tough races.
“I’m running because California needs proven fighters who will stand with President Trump to advance a bold America First agenda, restore law and order to our communities, strengthen our national security, and protect the American Dream for generations to come,” King said in a statement.
Calvert vowed in a statement Tuesday to “continue to fight for the families I represent in Congress.”
Calvert has survived previous rounds of redistricting, including in 2021, when overwhelmingly liberal Palm Springs became the first U.S. city to hold an election An all-LGBTQ+ city council — was added to his district, while majority-Republican Temecula was removed.
Calvert defeated former federal prosecutor Will Rollins in 2024, defeating the young Democrat 51.7% to 48.3%.
Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Bonsall)
After Proposition 50 was released, Issa’s Republican stronghold in Southern California narrowed the divide between Democrats and Republicans and gained a larger share of Latino voters. Like Calvert and King, Issa may decide to run for new Republican majorities in Riverside and Orange counties.
“California is my home,” Issa said Tuesday night. “It’s worth fighting for”
He called Proposition 50 “the worst gerrymander in history” and vowed to continue to represent “the people of California — no matter what political party they belong to or where they live.”
Issa, 72, lost a legal battle last week over the new maps, which he sought to block.
According to the complaint filed in federal court, Issa claimed he would be harmed because he would lose his “senior advantage in the committee process” and have “reduced influence over legislative priorities and committee work that impact my constituents,” NBC7 San Diego reported.
Democratic San Diego City Councilman Mani von Wilpert and perennial candidate Amal Campa-Najjar are among those challenging Issa for his new seat.
