Domer’s Bloodshot Eyes flutters between three screens: X-rays, a breakthrough news feed, and a bunch of colorful line charts. The sun set a few hours ago, but he continued to refresh and scan the screen in search of opportunities. Will Mike Waltz resign as national security adviser? Considering the strong rebound received after sharing the confidential attack plan with reporters, Domer quickly bet “yes” in the US dollar quantity type.
Full-time political bets tell the Observer that such a deal is one of hundreds that can consume 100 hours. Domer only wants to identify by his pseudonym, he has been making transactions in the market, a type of financial exchange that allows users to place funds on the outcome of an event. He has used platforms including Intrade, Previentit and Polymarket since 2007, although he is most active now, the first and federal investigation forecasting market exchange in the United States since the official designation of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2020.
Domer’s public Kalshi profile shows that he has won over $600,000 in prize money since joining one of its earliest unicorns, with nearly 20% of the proceeds coming from last year’s presidential election. October, Federal Court of Appeals ruled Kalshi can let users place bets on that presidential election. The market made $1 billion and grew Kalshi’s user base in less than a month.
For Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara, the president’s $1 billion bet is proof. Years of regulatory battles led here-the exchange suddenly appeared at the center of a speculative empire, and democracy encountered derivatives. “We’ve been believing in everything for five years and have been working hard to build and showcase – it’s great to see it come true,” she said.
From the outside, Carlsey might be similar to another messy fintech. But the company’s current trajectory shows that there is something closer to new political institutions. The eldest son of President Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr. Carlsey, a former CFTC commissioner and Trump Ally, has been attacked to lead the CFTC again. With its growing influence and distance from political power, Carlsey is no longer just a tool for speculation. It has become a tool for narrative management.
The nearly 60 active activity markets related to Trump totaled more than $22 million in Kalshi. What are the odds that President Trump will eliminate the Education Department? Pardon Didi? Publish Epstein’s documents? According to Domer, volatility and chaos have allowed the forecast market to flourish. “You woke up and there were some unrelated tweets about random things you didn’t even think of,” he said. “Suddenly, the world moved in a slightly different direction.”
Kalshi’s team is expected to be down after the election. Instead, the platform’s 1,200 active markets and 20 million user bases drive transaction stability. Lopes Lara said she was surprised by consistency. Still, political gambling is only part of the picture.
Predictive markets are based on a seemingly simple principle: the collective wisdom of people who are jeopardized by money. Eric Zitzewitz, Dartmouth Economics Professor Tell observers that this system encourages more realistic assessments of future events. This logic attracts not only bettors like Domer, but also researchers and policy makers who want to mine public sentiment.
Kalshi positioned itself as a data engine. Although the political markets are most obvious, they are less than half the activity of the platform. Domer said he won nearly $200,000 in the forecast award, with the Pope’s successor of $30,000, and thousands of topics, from economic indicators to natural disasters. The Pope Market specifically states: In Carlsey, even religions can be traded. Everything is liquidity.
However, there is no category that is faster than moving. According to a company spokesperson, Carlsey’s sports market has surpassed all other markets since its inception in January, contributing $1 billion in trading volume in just five months.
The surge has not attracted people’s attention. Seven states are taking legal actionclaiming Kalshi is an operation of unlicensed sports betting and evading state taxes. Kalshi is suing regulators in Nevada, New Jersey and Maryland that their markets are federally approved under CFTC powers and therefore are approved by pre-emptive state laws.
“I think this is just the beginning of state litigation,” Peter Malyshev, a CFTC regulatory expert and Cadwalader partner, told Observer. “If everything is taken over by federalism, states will lose a lot of revenue.” The legal terrain is vague, especially since a 2018 Supreme Court ruling gave states control over sports betting, which is 40 states have taken action since.
From the beginning, Carlsey’s own relationship with the CFTC has been aggressive. Lopes Lara said her team endured two years of “absolute hell” before it was approved in 2020. “It’s a struggle – making the government, no, no one says we’re trying to destroy democracy,” she recalls.
The battle escalated when Kalshi entered the election market. CFTC appealed last year Galsey’s favorable federal rulingbelieves that such a market is beyond its jurisdiction and may be harmful to democratic integrity. But in May, the agency abruptly abandoned its appeal and canceled its long-term roundtable on sports betting regulations. No explanation was given.
This silence is now part of the story. Four of five CFTC announces departure of specialist This year, Quintenz (a member of Kalshi’s board of directors since 2021), but has confirmed Trump as chairman of the agency.
“The guardrails protect people from blatant mistakes, and they seem to be reducing a lot,” Domer said. Trump Jr.
Zitzewitz noted that the forecast market is vulnerable to manipulation, especially when a small number of users bets to swing the results. For example, Transaction Book Four Polmoarket accounts were reported, All this goes back to a foreign nationinvest $28 million in Pro-Trump bets in the last election. Unlike Kalshi, Polymarket is still unregulated, but its success shows the size of this emerging economy.
Skeptics argue that these platforms are not just other names gambling and should be strictly protected by consumers. Zitzewitz warns that health regulation is necessary: predatory behavior has too small leads; excessive inhibition of participation. Imbalance will destroy the entire premise.
However, Kalshi’s recent legal victory combined with the rise in Quintenz shows that the regulatory environment is increasingly tolerating speculation. “If you asked me a few months ago, I would say it was unpredictable,” Marishev said. “Now, it’s becoming more predictable: predicting that the market will continue and continue to grow.”
Domer hopes that the space can grow – but admits the paradox. More and more markets bring more opportunities. But novelty introduces confusion. When time was named “Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukrainian Spirit” Person of the Year, chaos dominated: How will Kalshi solve the market? Is the “Ukrainian Spirit” an independent entity? “If you’re on the wrong side, it can be very arbitrary and financially damaging,” Domer said. “There are countless examples of this.”
However, it is this uncertainty that inspires experienced traders. In Kalshi, they see a new kind of communication – the line between facts and emotions is monetized. Chaos has proven to be a commodity. Kalshi bets it will remain the most valuable one.
