Leaders of the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Democratic Republic of Rwanda have called for a ceasefire in eastern Congo to end the latest deadly chapter of the thirty-year conflict.
After an unannounced meeting in Qatar on Tuesday, analysts said it could indicate a reduced downgrade in the conflict that threatens to become a regional war or the latest failure to try to bring peace to Central Africa.
According to a joint statement with Qatar, Congo’s President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwanda’s Paul Kagame are committed to a “direct and unconditional ceasefire”.
The meeting was the most important step for the leaders, occupying two of the largest cities and large territories in eastern Congo since a Rwandan-backed armed group called M23, in an offensive that began in January.
“This is the first time that two leaders have issued a specific statement,” said Oluwole Ojewale, a scholar at the Institute for Security Studies focused on Central Africa.
The battle has been displaced since January and thousands have been killed, according to the UN Refugee Service.
The leaders’ meeting comes the second day after the EU announced support for the M23 by the Rwandan government and military officials. Rwanda retaliated through diplomatic ties with Belgium, a country where Congo and Rwanda were once colonial rulers and has been the voice of leadership over Rwanda’s participation in the conflict.
Mr. Tshisekedi and Mr. Kagame said in a statement that they wanted to “build a solid foundation for lasting peace” in eastern Congo, where three decades of fighting for racial tensions and land have killed millions.
Previous attempts to Truces have failed, either because of a ceasefire breach or because at the last minute, the warring parties withdraw from talks, including a meeting scheduled to be held between the Congolese government and the M23 leadership on Tuesday.
M23 said on Monday it would not attend the party, which was scheduled to be held in Angola, whose president is considered more suitable for Congo’s cause. Instead, Rwanda and the President of Congo met in Qatar, a close ally of Rwanda.
“Congo may have realized that concessions must be made,” said Jason Stearns, co-founder of the New York University Congo Research Group.
According to the United Nations, the United States and the European Union, M23 is an organization established in 2012 and is armed and directed by the Rwandan army. Rwanda denied supporting the group and said violence in neighboring Congo was threatening its security.
The group, with 6,000 to 9,000 soldiers, now controls a Congo region like Louisiana, rich in minerals such as gold and other minerals. The region includes two key hubs on the border with Rwanda Goma and Bukavu.
It is not clear whether M23, which denies any affiliation with the Rwandan government, will pay attention to the call for a ceasefire. In the past, the group announced a unilateral ceasefire, only a few days later violating them, including after being captured.
A spokesperson for the group did not respond to a request for comment Wednesday.
Neither the Congolese military nor international pressure has been able to stop the M23’s progress. Despite Western countries’ assistance to development and certain export activities, the Rwandan government has maintained a strong position due to its role in the conflict.
Mr Ojeval said the United States could have convened peace talks, but given that the Trump administration was not a priority, Qatar stepped in. French President Emmanuel Macron’s previous attempts also failed.
“It seems now that the countries that actually have brought warring African leaders to the table are Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other countries – they are completely outside the coast of the African continent,” Mr Ojewale said.
Experts say there are several options now, although no options are available. These include a power-sharing agreement in Congo during peace talks that could lead to a power-sharing agreement in eastern Congo, 1,000 miles from the capital Kinshasa; integration of M23 fighters into the Congolese army; establishing buffer zones; and even annexation of Rwanda in the region.
“Rwanda is in a bad position when it comes to international pressure, but it is not the case,” Mr Stearns said. “This ‘no peace, no war’ situation could last for a while and Rwanda is unfavorable.”
