Before preparing to win the election again, the Democrats seem to have a lot of work to do. Its agenda seems exhausted. Its voters were disillusioned. Its politicians strive to strongly oppose President Trump.
But tonight – on many Tuesday nights in the coming years – the election results could make it easier to forget the dilemma of gatherings.
Democrats have performed well in the special election since Trump took office. On average, they scored 12 percentage points in Kamala Harris’ performance in 11 special elections, according to data collected by Downballot. This includes flipping in two reliable Republican areas in Iowa and Pennsylvania.
The Democratic Forces model seems likely to continue when voters from Florida’s First and Sixth Districts participated in the polls to replace Matt Gaetz and plagued national security adviser Michael Waltz. Democrats are not expected to win these games, but there are all signs of competitive games in District 6, with Mr. Trump winning in November with 30 points. Democrats are more optimistic in regular elections held by the Wisconsin Supreme Court.
If you are a long-term reader, then the democratic forces in special and off-season elections are not surprising. Throughout the Trump era, Democrats performed well in low-court elections, as the party seemed to perform best among the most dedicated regular voters. This advantage is partly attributed to the party’s advantage among college graduates, but the advantage is deeper than the demographic.
The outstanding democratic vote seems to be lagging behind the party’s strength again. According to voter records analyzed by my colleagues, there were much more early votes in Florida’s special election than they were in November, although overall, inclined toward Republicans. Wisconsin has no registration data for political parties, but our estimates suggest that early voters are more democratic than last November and will give Ms. Harris 20 points.
Over the past few years, we have repeatedly stressed that the democratic forces in these special elections do not necessarily mean a great deal for elections in general elections. After all, it is driven by highly involved voters who strongly “boycott” Mr. Trump. They have numbers to wield special voters, but not senior presidential elections. To give an example: By our estimates, voters who stood out in Wisconsin’s last Supreme Court match since 2016 would have supported Ms. Harris’ support for Mr. Trump – even though Trump shipped the state in 2024, it was simply because more Harris voters would have found more Harris voters in these lower elections.
A warning worth reiterating: Today’s results have not changed the Democratic Party has major problems, from large messaging and policy issues to its struggles among specific groups such as young people and non-white voters.
Nevertheless, the continued democratic strength in the special election is worth noting. In most cases, this will remind people that despite the challenges Democrats face, there may be many elections winning between 2028 and November 2028. Mr. Trump simply aroused too much opposition from highly dedicated voters, so many Republicans will fail.
It’s not necessarily a huge surprise – after all, it’s Mr. Trump’s first term. But until recently, Mr. Trump’s second term did not necessarily unfold like his first term. His first victory brought obvious signs of democratic “resistance”. His second victory brought about topics about “the atmosphere shift” and Democrats “playing death.” Although there are indeed many differences in his two wins, it turns out that the Democratic vote is not in it.
In fact, according to Downballot’s calculations, the Democrats’ strength in the special elections so far this year is very similar to their strength in 2017 and is stronger than the Biden year.
It is not without political consequences to realize that Republicans are very susceptible to high-election elections. In most cases, it has contributed to the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw Elise Stefanik’s nomination for the UN ambassador. The party no longer believes it will retain her strong Republican New York seat in a special election. With Republicans having such a trivial House majority, it is even conceivable that retirement and subsequent special elections could also put partisan control of the House forward Silver Bulletin’s Eli McKown-Dawson pointed out the 2026 election.
In the long run, the party’s plight could erode Mr. Trump’s support among congressional Republicans. While the power in special elections may not mean much to a high turnout presidential election, these games may indeed mean lower midterms. Of course, in 2018 and 2022, when democracy’s success and resilience are foreshadowed by special electoral strength.
As Republican members consider a challenging cycle, it may be in their interest to decide that it is in their interest to distinguish themselves from the president.
