Astronomers have been watching closely 2024, a space rock with an increased likelihood of hitting Earth in 2032. But don’t worry: NASA announced on Monday that it no longer poses a threat – the chances of asteroids shattering on our planet have dropped to almost zero on our planet.
“I know it’s likely to go away,” said Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California. “I’m sleeping well.”
On December 27, 2024, Skywatchers reported a few days after 2024 observations, scientists calculated that it had more than 1% chance of shocking the Earth, the only known large asteroid with such a high probability of impact.
When scientists studied more data about the object, last Tuesday, the odds of the impact continued until January and February, from 1.2% to 3.1% peak.
It may sound small, but the probability is higher than any NASA record of an object of this size or larger.
Somewhere between 130 and 300 feet, 2024 is big enough to wipe out the city. Early estimates of the asteroid trajectory suggest that it may slam or explode violently in large metropolitan areas including Mumbai, India and Lagos, Nigeria.
However, the day after the 3.1% forecast, the odds in 2024 will slam into the Earth on February 19, dropping to 1.5%, and then dropping to 0.3% the next day. On Monday afternoon, NASA shared “all clarity” in an article on X, noting that the probability was further reduced to 0.004%, or one of 25,000 opportunities.
According to Dr. Farnocchia, the value is outdated. The latest estimate is smaller: one of 59,000 opportunities.
The possibility of impact has changed over the past two months as astronomers gather more information about asteroids from ground telescopes. With other data, the uncertainty of its route through the solar system began to shrink, and eventually so much that the planetary guards thought we were no longer in danger.
“It’s normal behavior, and when you discover an asteroid, you’ll expect it,” said Dr. Farnocchia, adding that it’s just a “scientific process at work.”
While Earth may have escaped damage through asteroids, NASA says there is a small chance (about 1.7%) of the year in 2024, creating another crater on its speckled surface.
The agency will continue to monitor asteroids from observatories around the world, including the Lowell Discovery Telescope in Arizona and the Nordic Optical Telescope in the Canary Islands. It will be hidden until the end of April 2024 until 2028.
“The asteroid is going to do what it is going to do,” said Dr. Farnocchia. He added that astronomers discovered it and measured the chances of collisions, adding: “In fact, we are doing what we should do to deal with it.” Risks of asteroid impact.”
