The huge reservoirs of the Colorado River are now exhausted that another dry year could put them to dangerously low levels, a group of famous scholars warn in a new analysis.
Researchers are urging the Trump administration to intervene in seven states that rely on rivers and cut water usage heavily in water supply — California, Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, Utah and Wyoming.
“We have a real problem that we should deal with as soon as possible, not later,” said Jack Schmidt, director of the Colorado River Research Center at Utah State University. “Everyone needs to find a way to cut now.”
The Colorado River provides water to cities from Denver to San Diego, from Rocky Mountain to 30 indigenous tribes and agricultural communities in northern Mexico.
The river has long been overused, and its reservoir has dropped sharply under continuous dry conditions since 2000. Research shows that warm climates drive long dry years to a large extent due to the use of fossil fuels.
Last winter, a huge snowfall in the Rocky Mountains increased the stress on the river. The researchers analyzed the latest federal data and found that if the upcoming winter was dry, the river’s main reservoirs would approach vital levels unless water use was greatly reduced.
Experts are Reportreleased Thursday. If next year’s repetition is this year’s repetition, they wrote, the total water use will exceed the river’s natural flow on at least 3.6 million acres, almost as much as California used throughout the year last year.
In this case, the area will once again exceed more than a quarter of the river’s water.
Researchers say snowy winters always make people feel relieved. But they pointed out that the federal government’s Latest seasonal forecasts It says that temperatures in the southwest may be above average and below average precipitation in the next few months.
They called on the Ministry of the Interior to oversee the dam and management of the river to “take immediate action.”
“Avoiding this possible outcome requires immediate and substantial reductions,” the researchers wrote. “Immediate measures to reduce consumption uses across the basin will reduce the need for severe measures to be implemented in the coming years.”
Cruise on Lake Powell in the Glen Canyon National Entertainment District near Page, Arizona. Reservoirs on the Colorado River have declined in recent years, less than one-third of their capacity.
(Rebecca Noble/Getty Image)
Near Las Vegas, Lake Mead, the largest reservoir in the United States, is now 31%.
The country’s second largest reservoir is upstream of the Grand Canyon, accounting for 29% of its capacity.
Federal officials say they want to get Lake Powell far higher than the low-level water passing through Glen Canyon Dam can pass downstream Bypass pipe.
Officials say the four 8-foot-wide steel pipes could create a bottleneck that limits how much water reaches California, Arizona, Nevada and Mexico. Last year, federal officials Damage found At lower reservoir levels, the interior of the pipe can be further restricted.
The researchers used key thresholds established by federal managers to study what they called “realistically acceptable water.”
Researchers in one Blog Posts Announce the report. “The reality between the ongoing water use and how much water actually flows in the Colorado River poses a serious near-term threat.”
After a series of dry years, the heavy snow packs in the Rockies in 2023 have brought some relief to the depleted reservoir. Rivers in 2024 are close to average compared to the first quarter century. But this year, snowmelt runoff in the river basin accounts for only 70% of the average.
Representatives of seven states have been Have a tough negotiation To formulate new rules to deal with the shortage after 2026, when the current rules expired.
Although these negotiations continue, Schmidt and other researchers say the situation calls for immediate action to reduce the demand for the river.
“We think [the Bureau of] “Reclamation requires all of these issues to be addressed immediately and cuts are started,” Schmidt said.
Home Department spokesman Alyse Sharpe said the Reclamation Bureau is closely monitoring the conditions and as the expiration of the current rules approaches, “we are actively interacting with partners in the Colorado River Basin to develop new long-term operational agreements.”
“This is a time when urgency, collaboration and transparency is needed,” Sharp said in an email. “We remain committed to working with basins, tribes, Mexico and stakeholders to ensure a sustainable and resilient future for the Colorado River system.”
In recent years, the seven states have adopted a series of incremental water conservation programs in an attempt to prevent reservoirs from reaching dangerously low levels.
As part of these agreements, farmers in California Empire Valley voluntarily Make some hay fields dry Part of the time is exchanged for payments through plans to obtain federal funds during the Biden administration.
Experts say they are not sure if the Trump administration will provide more money for the efforts to do these savings.
Anne Castle, a senior researcher at the Getches-Wilkinson Center at the University of Colorado Law School, said the report was intended as a “wake-up call” for water managers across the Colorado River Basin.
The Castle said politically, a reduction in water use would be difficult, but she noted that the seven states “have federal interest and eventually reach an agreement around the solution.”
The focus should be “on this short-term management issue so we don’t find ourselves in a deeper loophole,” the Castle said.
