Throughout the 2025 season, few players will be more Pete Crow-Armstrong. The young center fielder appeared to be a superstar in the first half of the year, with 20 doubles, 21 home runs and 25 steals through the end of June. The result was a .263/.299/.537 slash line, very good for a 128 wRC+, and a solid center field defense that makes him an early contender Shohei Ohtani In this year’s MVP race. Following that stellar performance, his second half was far less exciting, hitting just .228/.274/.412 (86 wRC+) with 17 doubles, 10 homers, and 10 steals since July 1st.
Crowe-Armstrong’s second-half slump was enough to keep him out of the MVP conversation, but his season-long numbers are still impressive. In 157 games, the 23-year-old slashed .247/.287/.481 (109 wRC+) with 35 steals in 43 attempts and had an above-average shutout that was MLB’s best thanks to his work in center field. All of that adds up to 6.0 bWAR and 5.4 fWAR, which ranks 11th and 15th respectively among qualified hitters this year. For a 23-year-old with less than 150 games of major league experience, five or six wins in a season can hardly be viewed as anything other than exciting success, which is how Jed Hoyer described it in his end-of-season press conference in Game 5 of the NLDS shortly after the Cubs’ season ended.
“Overall, he had a great year,” Hoyer talked about Crowe-Armstrong, per Patrick Mooney of The Athletic . Hoyer went on to describe Crow Armstrong as “Best Defensive Player in Baseball” and pointed out “When he hits the ball, he’s a superstar.”
All of that sounds right based on his performance this season, and as the Cubs head into the offseason and Hoyer admits they’d like to have extension conversations with several players, Mooney writes, locking down team’s star center fielder “Numbers are the priority.”
This isn’t the first time the Cubs and Crowe-Armstrong have talked about extending his stay in Chicago beyond his years of franchise control. Before Crowe-Armstrong’s outstanding first half of the game, the two sides discussed a contract extension at the beginning of the year. It was reported that Crowe-Armstrong’s maximum salary was about 75mm, and the guarantee was between 60mm and 70mm. Crowe-Armstrong, of course, declined the offer, and although Hoyer expressed a willingness to discuss an extension with young players at training camp during the season, no further progress on the topic was reported throughout the year. That’s perhaps not surprising, considering Crowe-Armstrong has just had an unusual year.
If the Cubs do intend to reopen extension talks with their new star, what would a smart contract look like? Entering 2025, with just one full year of MLB service time left, Crowe-Armstrong is currently under control until the end of the 2030 season. By then, he’s expected to hit free agency before the age-29 campaign. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker offers a host of comparable players in recent years. players like CoBryan Hayes, Lawrence Butlerand Ezequiel Tovar Like Crowe-Armstrong, they had less than two years of MLB service when they signed their contracts. They both received contract extensions in the $60MM to $70MM range that the Cubs reportedly offered before this season, but those deals were botched by $134.2MM in guaranteed money. Jackson Merrill He signed an eight-year contract extension with the Padres back in April.
Merrill is one year younger than Crowe-Armstrong, which means he signed his contract at the beginning of his age-22 season, while Crowe-Armstrong will sign before his age-24 season this offseason. However, both players had five more seasons under club control before hitting free agency, and both had similar elite platform seasons; Merrill’s 130 wRC+ topped Crowe-Armstrong’s, but his inferior defense and baserunning kept his fWAR at roughly 5.3. They play the same role, making Merrill Lynch’s recent deal a logical reference point for Crowe-Armstrong as a whole.
It’s the second-highest guaranteed money in MLB history for an outfielder with less than two seasons of service, trailing only the $210MM guaranteed from the Mariners. Julio Rodriguez Up to $470MM over 17 years if all incentives are met and options are exercised. Given that Rodriguez had posted a 148 wRC+, 5.7 fWAR, and 6.2 bWAR in just 132 games as a 21-year-old rookie when he signed the extension, it’s a safe bet that a Crowe-Armstrong deal would be closer to Merrill’s contract.
A contract similar to the one Merrill signed might make some sense, with an eight-year, $140MM contract that would beat Merrill’s contract in both guaranteed money and average annual value. However, the Cubs may not be interested in such a big guarantee of franchise control for just three more seasons, and Crowe-Armstrong may not want to hit free agency at the end of his physical prime as a player who derives as much value from his speed and defense.
Then, perhaps the two sides can sign a longer contract that buys out more free-agent years. An 11-year contract that will run through the 2036 season will keep Crowe-Armstrong in town through his prime years and buy out the six-year free agent contract. An 11-year, $187M guaranteed deal would narrowly beat Merrill Lynch in terms of guaranteed money and AAV, while also narrowly beating out an 8-year, $18M deal from the Cubs Jason Hayward The largest trade in team history was made in the 2015-16 offseason.
That would be a risky investment given Crowe-Armstrong’s poor discipline at the plate, which ranks him third in the majors this year. Given that risk, and the fact that Crowe-Armstrong won’t reach arbitration until next winter, it would be understandable if the Cubs decided to wait and see how the 2026 season plays out before handing over the money to their center fielder.
On the other hand, the upside of Crowe-Armstrong’s profile is clear, and Chicago’s reluctance to spend money in free agency in recent years could mean waiting another year could put Crowe-Armstrong out of Chicago’s price range entirely. Re-signing Crowe-Armstrong may be the team’s best option for acquiring long-term star talent. At the same time, it would be understandable if Crowe-Armstrong was motivated to lock in long-term financial security ahead of the 2026-27 offseason, which is widely expected to lead to a contentious round of collective bargaining over the sport’s economic future.
