If these ads are any indication, Proposition 50 presents Californians with a stark choice: “Stick with Trump” or “throw away the Constitution” as Democrats seize power.
As with many things in 2025, Trump appears to be the most compelling issue.
Even as California has grown accustomed to incendiary campaigns, Proposition 50 remains notable for its trenchant attacks that cut through the dense and esoteric issue of congressional redistricting. It boils down to a basic fact: This is a Democratic-led measure aimed at reconfiguring California’s congressional districts to help the party win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2026 and stifle President Trump’s attempts to keep Republicans in power through similar maneuvers in other states.
So far, the anti-Trump message promoted by Proposition 50 advocates, led by Gov. Gavin Newsom and other top Democrats, appears to be the most effective.
Supporters of the initiative vastly outnumber their rivals, with Proposition 50, one of the most expensive ballot measures in state history, leading in the polls.
“Anytime you can take an issue and personalize it, you have an advantage. In this case, 50 could go all out to stop Donald Trump,” said Jim Brulte, a former legislative leader and state Republican chairman.
Adding to the drama are the roles of two political and cultural icons as leaders of both parties: former President Obama for and former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger against, both of whom believed the very essence of democracy was at stake.
Schwarzenegger and the two main committees opposing Proposition 50 focused on the ethical and moral necessity of retaining independent redistricting commissions. In 2010, Californians voted to create a panel to draw the state’s congressional district boundaries after each census in an effort to provide equitable representation for all state residents.
This is not a political ideal that can be easily explained in 30 TV ads or Instagram posts.
Bluett said redistricting is a “complex issue,” but noted that “the onus is on the opposition to try to explain what the initiative really does, and the pro side can use crib notes [that] It’s about stopping Trump — the easier path. “
Partisans on both sides of the aisle agree on this.
“The yes side was quick to capitalize on the anti-Trump message and lock in the lead with direct base appeals,” said Jamie Fisfis, a political strategist who has worked on many Republican congressional campaigns in California. “The partisanship and high awareness behind the measure means it is unlikely to collapse under the weight of negative advertising like other initiatives. It’s a turnout game.”
In ads that aired during the World Series and NFL games, Obama warned that “Democracy is on the verge of voting on November 4th” as he urged voters to support Proposition 50. In an ad for the most well-funded committee opposing the proposal, Schwarzenegger said opposing the ballot measure is critical to ensuring citizens are not overwhelmed by elected officials.
“The Constitution doesn’t start with ‘We, the politicians.’ It starts with ‘We, the people,'” Schwarzenegger told USC students in mid-September, in a speech excerpted in an anti-Proposition 50 ad. “Democracy — we have to protect it, we have to fight for it.”
California’s Democratic-led Legislature voted in August to put redistricting proposals on the November ballot that could boost their rankings in Congress. The measure pushed by Newsom comes as a counter to Trump’s efforts to increase the number of House Republicans in Texas and other Republican-led states.
Republicans hold a slim majority in the House, and next year’s elections will determine which party controls the chamber during Trump’s final two years in office and whether he can advance his agenda or become the focus of investigations and possible impeachment.
Notably, Trump, the initiator of California’s Proposition 50 battle, was absent.
Given Trump’s deep unpopularity among Californians, it’s no surprise that opponents of the proposal decided not to highlight Trump. More than two-thirds of likely voters in the state disapprove of his presidency in late October, according to a Public Policy Institute of California poll.
Trump did, however, urge California voters not to mail in their ballots or vote early, falsely arguing in social media posts that both methods of voting were “dishonest.”
Some California Republican leaders fear Trump’s announcement could suppress Republican votes.
In recent days, the California Republican Party has sent emails to registered Republicans shaming them into not voting. “Your neighbors are watching,” the email read, along with a photo of a woman peering through binoculars. “Don’t let your neighbors down. They’ll find out!”
Tuesday’s election will cost state taxpayers nearly $300 million. With multiple redistricting efforts in other states, it’s unclear whether the outcome will have an impact on control of the House.
But some Democrats are uneasy about the money being spent on an effort that may not change the partisan makeup of Congress.
Johanna Moska, who worked in the Obama administration, described Proposition 50 as “depressing.”
“If we can find a way to make it affordable, I just hope we can spend the money to solve the problem in the state,” she said. “Gavin found something that worked for Gavin. And that was resistance to Trump.”
Newsom’s efforts to oppose Trump are seen as a fundamental argument if he runs for president in 2028, which he admitted he is considering.
Proposition 50 has also become a platform for other politicians who may consider running for California governor in 2026, Sen. Alex Padilla and billionaires Rick Caruso and Tom Steyer.
The field is constantly changing and there is no clear front-runner.
Padilla was thrown to the ground in Los Angeles while trying to ask Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem about the Trump administration’s immigration policies, a prominent feature of television ads promoting Proposition 50. Steyer, a longtime Democratic donor who briefly ran for president in 2020, drew attention when he became the sole speaker in a second television ad. Caruso, who ran unsuccessfully against Karen Bass in the 2022 Los Angeles mayoral race and is reportedly considering another political run, recently sent a glossy email supporting Proposition 50 to voters.
Steyer pledged $12 million to support Proposition 50. His first ad, which debuted during “Jimmy Kimmel Live!,” showed a Trump impersonator becoming increasingly angry as news reports showed the ballot measure passing. Steyer’s second ad centers entirely on him, fueling speculation about a possible run for governor next year.
Advertisements opposing the claim were played less frequently before disappearing from television entirely in recent days.
“The advantage for the yes side is that you can view this issue as a referendum on Trump,” said Rob Stutzman, a Republican strategist who works for Schwarzenegger but is not involved in any Proposition 50 campaigns. “Asking people to rally and vote to save government committees — that’s not a rally call.”
