sacramento — In mid-August, Gov. Gavin Newsom stepped up to the microphone at state Democratic Party headquarters, convinced he was on the right side of history, speaking out about California’s moral obligation to stop President Trump’s attempts to tip the balance of Congress.
Over the next 2 1/2 months, Newsom became the public face of Proposition 50, a proposal designed to help Democrats win control of the U.S. House of Representatives by temporarily redrawing California’s congressional districts.
Newsom took this step despite tepid support for the gerrymandering measure in early polls.
With Tuesday’s election, the fate of Proposition 50 comes to a head for Newsom, who publicly acknowledged last week that he is considering a 2028 presidential run. The outcome will test not only his political instincts but also his ability to implement a measure that attracts national attention.
From the beginning, Newsom acted with conviction and caution.
“I’m mindful of the hard work ahead,” Newsom said shortly after lawmakers put Proposition 50 on the ballot in August.
This is familiar territory for a governor who built his career on high-stakes political bets. As mayor of San Francisco, his decision in 2004 to issue same-sex marriage licenses made him a progressive icon. It also drew accusations that he galvanized conservative turnout in that year’s presidential election, which ended with George W. Bush winning a second term.
As the state’s newly elected governor, he imposed a moratorium on the death penalty in 2019 despite voters twice rejecting capital punishment measures, calling it a costly and biased system that “failed to deliver justice,” a move that drew the ire of law enforcement groups and victims’ families. His decision to take on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in a 2023 prime-time debate moderated by Fox News’ Sean Hannity was meant to demonstrate his policy mastery and political flexibility, but failed amid a barrage of insults.
With Proposition 50, Newsom put himself at the center of another potentially career-defining gamble without even knowing how it would play out. Ahead of Tuesday’s special election, polls suggest he may be on the right track. A survey co-sponsored by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and The Times found that six in 10 likely voters support Proposition 50.
“You know, not everyone is going to do that,” said veteran Democratic strategist Gail Kaufman. “He saw the risk and accepted it.”
If approved by voters, the ballot measure would redraw California’s congressional map in favor of Democrats starting in the 2026 midterm elections, hoping to undermine Republican efforts to gain more seats for themselves. California introduced the measure in response to Trump and his political team leaning toward redrawing district lines in the Republican-led state to help the party retain control of the House of Representatives.
The balance of power in a closely divided House will determine whether Trump can advance his agenda in his final two years in office or face an emboldened Democratic majority that could challenge or even investigate his administration.
While the governor’s critics see the power-hungry politician chasing headlines and influence, supporters say it’s classic Newsom: confident, risk-tolerant and willing to stand alone when he believes he’s right. This year, he faced backlash from political allies when he invited conservative figure Charlie Kirk as the inaugural guest on his podcast, in which Newsom said he believed it was “grossly unfair” for transgender athletes to compete in women’s sports. After Kirk was killed, Newsom often took pride in that interview, noting the backlash he faced from his own party for hosting Trump allies.
In recent months, Newsom has struck a deal to stabilize a struggling oil refinery, pushed for cities to ban homeless encampments and proposed eliminating health insurance for undocumented immigrants — a series of moves that have tested his standing among progressives. Supporters said the moves showed his pragmatism, while critics said they reflected a shift toward centrism ahead of a possible presidential bid.
“In many ways, he’s not a careful politician,” said Jessica Levinson, a law professor at Loyola Law School. “His brand is a great and bold decision.”
On Proposition 50, Newsom cast the fight back against redistricting as a moral imperative, arguing that Democratic-led states must “retaliate in kind,” even if it means pausing the process of independent state redistricting that is largely seen as the gold standard. The measure upends a system that California overwhelmingly supports to keep politics out of the mapping process.
Levinson said Newsom’s profile grew along with Proposition 50’s poll numbers as he booked national television shows like “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” and appeared in ads supporting the ballot measure alongside former President Obama, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and other high-profile Democrats campaigning during the World Series.
“We are having a national discussion about Proposition 50,” Levinson said. “It’s really hard to talk about Proposition 50 without saying, ‘Governor Newsom is leading the effort to pass it.'”
California Republicans called the effort misguided, arguing that a retaliatory response would create a slippery slope that would undermine the independent redistricting process California voters choose twice at the ballot box.
“When you fight fire with fire, the whole world burns,” said California Rep. Kevin Keeley (R-Rocklin), whose district would be overhauled under Proposition 50. “Newsom is trying to claim that gerrymandering in Texas is bad, but what California is doing is good gerrymandering because somehow it’s undoing it… I just think gerrymandering is wrong. It’s wrong in Texas, it’s wrong in California.”
Kiley said Newsom has never shied away from national attention “and will pursue clear partisan goals.”
“He certainly took advantage of the opportunity to do both of those things,” Kelly said.
The redistricting plan initially did not have enough support. Supporters then released a flood of ads filled with claims that Trump had rigged the election.
Supporters of Proposition 50 have raised more than four times as much money as opponents in recent weeks, according to campaign finance reports filed with the state by three major committees supporting the proposal. Proposition 50 supporters raised so much money that Newsom told them “you can stop donating.”
Political analysts say the redistricting battle provides Newsom with what every ambitious politician craves: a narrative. This allows him to cast himself as a champion of democracy while breathing new life into donors. The message became more pointed when Trump administration officials said they would monitor polling places in several California counties at the request of the state Republican Party, prompting Newsom to accuse the Trump administration of “voter intimidation.”
Republican strategist Rob Stutzman said the race gave Newsom something he had been trying to find: a “real confrontation” with Trump that resonated beyond California.
“I think it works for him nationally,” Stutzman said. “I think whatever happens, it’s going to be a good thing for him in some ways, but if it does fail, it’s going to hurt the brand that he’s been able to win and there’s going to be a lot of disgruntled donors.”
While Newsom believes the measure is good for the state, Stutzman said it’s clear Proposition 50 is particularly good for the governor.
“He used it very, very effectively to his own ends,” Stutzman said. “If he becomes [presidential] Nominee, you can look back and say that was a big part of him getting there. “
