Beijing (Reuters) – The outlook for China’s real estate sector remains even more melancholy, Reuters polls show, despite measures to increase demand that help a fragile recovery.
House prices are expected to recover faster this year than previously estimated, with growth recovering in 2026, but slower than November’s forecast. A poll of 10 analysts was conducted from February 12 to 24.
Analysts expect that the stability of China’s real estate market will be a protracted process due to the housing list, which remains bearish demand and a long-term decline in population. At its peak in 2021, the industry accounted for about a quarter of the economy.
Polls found that the decline in real estate sales may be higher than expected in November, while investment is expected to decline gradually.
To stabilize its crisis-crisis real estate sector, China took “historic” steps last year, including urging local governments to buy unsold homes from heavy developers.
But these key measures have little impact, forcing Beijing to find new solutions for the real estate sector, which analysts say should involve large-scale direct state purchases of empty apartments.
“The industry continues to face structural challenges, including a large number of unsold housing lists, employment uncertainty and low housing affordability,” said Tyran Kam, senior director of ratings at Fitch Ratings Asia Pacific.
Analysts expect house prices to fall 2.5% this year, 2.0% deeper than previous polls. They estimate prices are up 1.2% next year, while they rose 1.6% in November’s polls and a further 2.0% increase in 2027.
The survey shows significant differences in home price fluctuations across cities and regions.
S&P Global Standard & Poor’s (China) analysts said that house prices are expected to fall slightly and stabilize in 2026. By comparison. In contrast, lower-rise cities may experience a longer price drop, analysts from analysts (China) say ratings.
Real estate sales are expected to shrink by 5.7% this year, faster than the 5.0% decline expected in the last poll. Investment could fall 7.0%, while investment in November fell 8.0%.
Ma Hong, senior analyst at GDDCE research firm, said the lower threshold for home purchases, including mortgage rates, down payment ratios and tax rates, coupled with risk controls from real estate companies, will create more confidence in home buyers.
