How Jannik Sinner’s loss in Shanghai affects year-end No. 1 matchup with Carlos Alcaraz ATP Tour

PIF ATP Ranking Update

How Sinner’s loss in Shanghai affects the year-end No. 1 fight with Alcaraz

Find out how Italy is doing after their third-round loss in Shanghai

October 7, 2025

Jannik Sinner’s hopes of gaining the ATP’s year-end No. 1 ranking from the PIF are growing slimmer.

After Sinner retired in the third set of his Rolex Shanghai Masters third-round match against Talon Grikspur, Carlos Alcaraz was in complete control of his year-end No. 1 battle with the Italian.

At the PIF ATP Live Race To Turin, Alcaraz leads Sinner by 2,540 points, which is also a barometer of the year-end battle for first place. The honor isn’t entirely out of reach for the Italian, but he’ll need to be close to perfect for the rest of the season to have a chance.

Sinner is next scheduled to compete in Vienna before competing in the final ATP Masters 1000 event of the season in Paris and the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin. The 24-year-old can score up to 3,000 points in these events.

Alcaraz is next scheduled to compete in the Nitto ATP Finals in Paris, where he will have a chance to reach 2,500 points if he does not accept a wild card to another tournament this season.

If Sinner successfully defends the Rolex Shanghai Masters championship, his points in live competitions will be 1,590 points behind his opponents, and he will have the ability to hit the year-end number one at the end of the season. Instead, Sinner needs to chase the title and hope Alcaraz suffers an early defeat for the rest of his schedule.

According to the Infosys ATP Win-Loss Index, Alcaraz has a 67-7 record this season, while Sinner has a 43-6 record. The former will be number one at the end of 2022, and the latter will be number one at the end of 2024.

No other player has the chance to earn the honor of being awarded the ATP’s year-end No. 1 ranking by the PIF.