France resumed negotiations to define future relations with New Caledonia, a French overseas territory in the southwestern Pacific region with approximately 293,000 people. The move ended nine months of political obstacles after violent protests across the territory in May 2024.
The protests are a plan against French President Emmanuel Macron’s plan to add 25,000 people to the region’s election list over the past two decades to reflect residents mainly from mainland France. The volume was confined as part of a deal that ended an armed independence movement in New Caledonia in 1988. To a large extent, they are pro-dependent indigenous islanders, about 41% of the population, who fear that such changes will weaken their influence in future elections.
French Overseas Minister Manuel Valls mentioned the protests when he visited New Caledonia to announce the reopening of the reopening of the negotiations, saying: “There is a before and after.” He described the negotiations as “opportunity” and said it was his “responsibility…find a way” to reach an agreement that satisfies everyone. But it’s not easy.
New Caledonia was first colonized by France in the mid-19th century. After World War II, they were designated as “overseas territory” with greater civil rights. However, the deep-rooted poverty and disenfranchise in the Karnak community carried out an armed insurgency to rule France in the 1980s.
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Subsequent negotiations between the French government and island leaders led to the 1988 Matignon Agreement and the 1998 Noumea Agreement, which jointly outlines the greater autonomy of New Caledonia, recognizes indigenous rights and investment in rural development, while ensuring three referendums on independence will be held. A measure designed to prevent the Karnaks from being politically marginalized has limited the election list of referendums and local elections for indigenous voters and residents living in the territory before 1998.
The agreement has made some progress in bridging the development gap, but the significant differences between the Karnak and non-Karnak populations remain. New Caledonia has one of the highest per capita GDP in the region, with $33,516 in 2022, for example, $5,405 in Fiji. However, the unemployment rate for the Kanak people is 38%, more than three times the 11% of the average Caledonian population. According to a study from the Northern Province and Loyal Island, the island is mainly indigenous, with 62% and 77% of people living below average living standards, respectively.
Political frustration also increased in 2021 after the third and final referendum of the Noumea Accords, resulting in another failure of the pro-independence movement. The first two votes in 2018 and 2020 show that the wins against the relative majority narrowed, at 57% and 53%, respectively. But Karnaks tried to postpone the final referendum because, originally scheduled for the pandemic, their cultural mourning ceremony would prevent many people who lost their families from taking the polls. When the vote went as planned, they boycotted, resulting in a 98% victory in pro-French posts. As a result, the pro-independence movement refused to accept the results of the referendum, and many maintained a call for complete self-determination.
A major test would be that when negotiations re-proposed the theme of election reform, the theme announced by the French authorities returned to the table.
Two years later, the electoral reforms proposed by Macron, in addition to refusing tolerate referendums and inciting existing complaints, were taken away by a large number of Karnak youth when they passed the parliamentary vote in 2024. However, while protesters achieved their goal of forcing the government to suspend election changes, it came at a price. The small society on the Pacific Island was destroyed and its economy was in ruins. With damages exceeding 2 billion euros, poverty has increased for those who have lost their homes and jobs, while the political landscape of the territory is very different.
Now, the local parliament in New Caledonia has turned to the French government for aid for reconstruction, Paris agreed. In addition to the regular annual funding of the territory, the central government will provide about 1.5 billion euros or 1.6 billion US dollars of US$1.5 billion, and another 130 million euros (about 135 million US dollars) to ensure the continuity of government services; 192 million euros, about 190 million US dollars, for rebuilding schools and public buildings; loans up to 1 billion euros, about 1.04 billion US dollars. But Paris has already received additional funding for government and fiscal reforms for New Caledonia.
Valls announced on February 12: “Without political compromise, there is no political compromise, just like there is no political solution to economic recovery.
Discussions on future relations and governance arrangements between France and New Caledonia began to seriously begin the visit after a week-long visit to New Caledonia on February 22. There, Valls directed a more balanced battle with the politically divided sides and acknowledged that the Kanak province paid tribute to those who died in the uprising of the 1980s. He told Kanak’s customary leader: “New Caledonia has no respect for the Melanesians, the people of Karnak and the first people.” He stressed the need for a “new social contract” to address the dissatisfaction of the younger generation of the territory. However, this did not prevent his verbal conflict with the public on both sides of the independence issue during his stay.
These developments will be welcomed by the neighboring Pacific Islands and the intergovernmental organization Pacific Islands Forum, which has long supported New Caledonia’s recovery on the UN’s list of decolonization.
The new proposal was met with a reconciliation response from moderate pro-independence leaders, such as Jean-Pierre Djaiwe of the Uni-Palika party, who publicly stated: “The core of these negotiations, for us, is to re-engineer the new relationship between Caledonia and France. The time ahead of us is precious. We must do our best to reach an agreement.”
As Denise Fisher pointed out for the Lowy Institute in Sydney, “Although independent parties are divided, they welcome Valls’s view of Noumea Accord as the basis of the future, as well as his foundation and decolonization process of sovereignty.” Valls seems to have agreed that future discussions should take place in Noumea rather than Paris, in response to their request, which is another important symbolic gesture.
However, there is still a deep polarization between pro-independence and pro-Francie camps. Some supporters of both sides have accepted the need for compromise, but for example, the tough pro-dependence coalition currently refuses to participate in discussions including pro-legal representatives, while some pro-French politicians refuse to mention anyone who is fully sovereign.
In the new Caledonia aspect, the discussion now lies in the hands of newly elected pro-French president Alcide Ponga. Ponga is the Kanak leader of La Rassemblement, or rallies, party, inaugurated in January after the former government was led by former regional president Louis Mapou. Both Valls and Ponga emphasize a focus on pragmatism, with a priority being to repair the bankrupt economy of the territory and rebuild the lives of its residents.
In addition, both call for a reset of the relationship between the middle road based on political consensus, rejecting the radical stance of both sides. But Blake Johnson, senior analyst at the Australian Institute for Strategic Policy in Canberra, said the possible expiration date for this approach could be short. “These conversations may ease tensions among groups, but unless real progress is made in the future of the territory, there is still a risk of instability and conflict,” Johnson told WPR.
A major test would be that when negotiations re-proposed the theme of election reform, the theme announced by the French authorities returned to the table. Johnson said they could be irritating the anger again. But French ambassador to the Pacific Veronique Roger-Lacan argued that these reforms are a necessary condition to be consistent with civil rights, because all citizens paying taxes in democratic countries must have the right to vote.
The next few months will be crucial as France says it will make revised election goals ahead of the next provincial election, which will be held in New Caledonia by the end of this year.
Catherine Wilson is an independent journalist and correspondent in Australia, covering current affairs, global issues, political affairs and international developments in the Pacific Islands region.
The reset between France and New Caledonia may have encountered some obstacles, which was the first to appear in the world political commentary.
