Despite federal attitudes and policies towards international students, the requirements for studying in the United States are still high.
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International student advocates are raising alarms that federal action limits foreign-born learners’ ability to learn in the U.S., but researchers say the trend does not indicate international students’ interest or need to study in the U.S.
A survey of 300 foreign students in late July found that 91% of U.S. institutions plan to study in the U.S., although 99% of respondents said they still trust the academic quality of U.S. institutions.
This is not to say that students are unaware of or are not disturbed by changes at the federal level. 55% of respondents in surveys said there was some level of attention in pursuing a degree in the United States, while 50% said they were less excited about the opportunities now than before. Their emotional change is mainly due to international tensions or politics (54%), followed by concerns about political instability in the United States (45%).
Even students who encounter visa backlogs have not turned their attention to other countries, Brian Meagher, vice president of Shorelight, a higher education advisory group focused on international students, said at the media roundtable on August 12. Instead, they are postponing to the spring semester. The U.S. State Department data showed that fewer than 19,000 students received F-1 or J-1 visas in that month compared to May 2024, and experts say this is the first sign that the expected students will come to campus this fall.
“Most of them want [to study in] “They didn’t change their minds to the UK, Canada or Australia. We do think that due to this situation, there will be a long-term impact on transfers to destinations in other countries.”
Others are surfing the internet at their host institutions or entering satellite campuses in other parts of the world for the first semester, but it is a less popular option, Meagher said.
“When talking to potential students, I would say it was a temporary change in the unfortunate times that could lead to the disappearance of the fall semester,” Shorelight CEO Tom Dretler said at the roundtable.
Long-term challenge expectations
Although international students see these changes as short-term setbacks, some market forecasts predict significant changes in admissions and income for higher education in the United States. Dretler said at least the lack of a visa could affect future applications for American universities.
Research by global intelligence agency Holon IQ pointed out that the United States is the highest destination country for international students, but since 2016, it is the beginning of Trump’s first administration – the country has lost 10 percentage points of international students.
Since 2016, “The United States is seen by some as less enthusiastic or safe, not energetic to recruit international students and deny most student visa applications, while governments and universities in other countries act together to increase international students,” said a report by Holon’s IQ.
Holon IQ’s modeling found that various federal actions, including changes in visa policies, crackdowns on universities and new tariffs could create obstacles for U.S. students, and a climate of uncertainty for potential students.
The institution predicts that the most likely trajectory is that the number of international enrollment in the United States will have a short-term decline, with 1.2 million students in 2030 unchanged from the 2023 level. However, the possible scenarios range from an increase of 8.3% for students to 7.9% in 2030.
“I think what’s going on in the U.S. is a point in time whether the U.S. will continue to lead and it will continue to be a global leader in international student mobility and the learning destinations needed,” said Patrick Brothers, co-CEO of Holon IQ Global Impact Impact Intelligence.
Pay the price
Experts warn that a lack of students on campus could mean a loss of tuition in the coming years.
NAFSA reports whether the number of new international students has fallen by 30% to 40%, which will result in a 15% drop in overall enrollment and a loss of $7 billion in revenue.
June data found that even a 20% drop would result in $1.7 billion in tuition revenue per year, or $5 billion in four years.
“We think it will be something negative for the U.S. economy, from a work perspective, and it’s very harmful to colleges and universities, but not always what people think,” Dreitler said. Top universities will be able to survive financial hotspots and get students off the waiting list, but regional and community colleges will suffer even more, which could increase tuition fees for middle-class families.
State with high international student enrollment rates will be hit hardest by changes. Among the highest states for international students (New York and Texas), he expects a total loss of $566.6 million, while the total loss of NAFSA will be $2.39 billion based on their respective data models.
