Vladimir Guerrero Jr.A more than a month ago on the first day of spring training, the extended deadline is a more than a month time without implementing the protocol. Guerrero broke a little, indicating he was not going to negotiate further, but he could hear Jays if they made a new offer. The mentality is more obvious now, given that Jays CEO Mark Shapiro said this morning that he hopes to finally agree to an extension with the team’s star first baseman (via Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi). Shapiro said:
“…I think my overall feeling is an optimism. I think we’re going to sign him. I think we’re going to expand him. My reason is because we have such a clear consistency in the results we need. Vlad wants to play his entire career as the Toronto Blue Jay. We hope he can end his career as Blue Jay. Optimistic, we’ll sign him.”
According to Hazel Mae and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet, responding to Shapiro’s comments: “I always feel good about the whole thing. I feel good about it. Just keep working very hard, staying optimistic, and being optimistic, not closing their doors…I’ll be open…I’ll be open…I’ll be open is what I’m going to go. On my team, in the game.”
Details around Guerrero’s asking price and the latest offer from the Blue Jays have been lost in weeks since his deadline passed. Guerrero himself made it clear that he had not sought anything close to Juan SotoMets’ 765mm guarantee; he requests $600mm margin in 14 or 15 year deals. The subsequent track and field sport Ken Rosenthal, Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of the New York Post and Davidi further illuminated the negotiations. Guerrero reportedly has a net value of $500mm, and Jays is said to offer numbers close to 500mm, but the deferred currency pushes today’s value to nearly 450mm.
Although Shapiro details the position of things, today warns that (no specially reported figures) that the gap is not as simple and straightforward as the apparent 50mm, separating the reported quote from the asking price. “This is just a partial simplification based on information,” Shapiro said.
Shortly after Hector Gomez of the Z101 Sports in the Dominican Republic, Shapiro’s candid and optimistic tone finally reached a long-term deal, reporting that Jays is preparing a new offer for Guerrero. While it is not clear whether a new offer will be made before opening day, Shapiro’s comments do give some trust in the idea of new proposals that may be available soon.
Even though he just turned 26 this past Sunday, Guerrero entered his last club-control season. He will earn 28.5mm in 2025 after avoiding arbitration this winter. He put one year older than Soto, when Soto was listed, he was still ready for free agents to blend with rare youth and senior offensive records.
Although Guerrero’s first two seasons of his career (his 20 and 21 years old efforts) were “only” above average, he exploded with an MVP caliber in 2021. His 2022-23 production is very strong, but the standards are not until 2021. He bounced to the elite level in 2024. Overall, Guerrero has risen a horrible .293/.370/.517 hit line since the 2021 breakthrough, with 136 home runs in 2783 sets – both above wrc+ measures above the league average of about 45%.
Last year, Guerrero scored nearly unparalleled hits and bat speeds on his 3-point shooting percentage last year while winning his career with a walking speed of 10.3%, the second highest score during his major league tenure. Each Statcast, he ranked 91% of the MLB hitters in at least the barrel rate (91st percentile), bat speed (95th), hard hit rate (97th), average exit rate (98th), expected play percentage (98th) and expected Woba (98th). No hitter in MLB has a higher maximum exit speed or expected hit average.
Guerrero is also very durable and only lags behind Marcus Semien The total board has appeared since 2021. In the same span, he and Yordan Alvarez For Major League Baseball’s sixth home run and ranked sixth with 405 runs. Guerrero is ranked 10th in the batting average, 11th in the past four years, 11th in hit percentages and 13th in the percentage of play. Defence and softball have clearly been a strike against him since the opening day of 2021, but Guerrero has been one of the top 10 best batsmen in the Major League Baseball, including two seasons, and he has been his elite.
According to Guerrero’s quality ball-striking skills, bat speed and batting metrics, there is little reason to expect him to drop significantly in the near future. As with any large deal, the second half of a contract can be painful, but this is often considered as the cost of doing business when signing a core core of astral level of this nature.
