right-handed Lucas Giolito He had a pretty good year with the Red Sox in 2025, but it ended in frustrating fashion when he didn’t make Boston’s postseason roster due to an elbow injury. Even before the Red Sox were eliminated, the manager Alex Cora Said Giolito likely won’t return this year. Today, MassLive’s Chris Cotillo provided an update on the right-hander’s status. Giolito has been participating in the throwing program, with one source telling Cotilo that Giolito is “100 percent,” while another source said Giolito is “making improvements.”
Giolito’s status is noteworthy at this stage of the offseason as he approaches his return to free agency. He originally signed a two-year, $38.5MM deal with the Red Sox before the 2024 season. Giolito had the opportunity to opt out of the deal after 2024, but he ended up missing the entire season due to surgery at UCL, so he naturally decided to stay in Boston for his second season.
By forgoing the chance to opt out, he gave the Red Sox a $14MM club option for 2026. However, he could convert that into a co-option choice of 19MM by pitching 140 frames in 2025. He’s converted it in 145 frames he’s pitched this year. The two sides have almost never entertained a mutual choice, with the last choice being made more than a decade ago. Therefore, Giolito will almost certainly receive a $1.5MM acquisition.
The coming winter is long, but Giolito’s recent health status is important. As Cotillo pointed out, the Red Sox had until five days after the World Series to decide whether to extend a qualifying offer to Giolito, a one-year contract worth $22.025MM. That’s about what the Red Sox will pay Giolito in each year of his two-year contract, so it’s not a huge increase.
However, there’s a reason the Red Sox might not be willing to continue paying Giolito that range. The most obvious one is the elbow. It was previously reported that Giolito did not have a UCL injury, but did have flexor irritation and bone issues. If the Red Sox think the injury could last until 2026, then they may be more willing to move on.
Another issue is Giolito’s performance. The Red Sox originally bought him cheap. He was a fringe ace just a few years ago, winning Cy Young votes three years in a row from 2019 to 2021. But his ERA surged to just under 5.00 in both 2022 and 2023. Even in those bad seasons, he struck out more than 25 percent of his batters. That’s down from his peak, when he struck out about 33 percent of his opponents, but still above average.
In 2025, Giolito had a solid ERA season, but failed to pick up a strikeout. His ERA for the year was as high as 3.41. He had a 6.42 ERA in seven starts, but posted a 2.51 ERA in his final 19 starts. However, even in the latter sample, he only defeated 20.3% of his opponents. For reference, the average strikeout rate for starting pitchers in 2025 is 21.8%. That number may be a bit inflated due to the use of openers, but Giolito’s rate is still pretty middling.
Another issue is that the reward for making a QO may be less than in the past. The Red Sox received the 75th overall pick in the 2025 draft when Nick Pivetta The QO declined and signed with the Padres last offseason, but that was after a year in which the Red Sox didn’t pay the competitive balance tax. RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts both estimate the Red Sox will be slightly over the tax line in 2025. These are unofficial estimates, but if they are accurate, if Giolito turns down the QO and signs elsewhere, the QO salary option would drop past the fourth-round pick.
If Giolito is healthy, he will likely start a playoff game for the Red Sox. he and Brian Bello It is the most mature choice behind ace Garrett Crochet. Instead, Bello and Rookie Connery Earl Start with the crochet hook. Cotillo said the Red Sox are very pleased with Giolito, including as a veteran clubhouse leader. Even if there are some worrying numbers and the benefits of having a QO are less, if they’re happy to take him on, maybe they’ll do it anyway. Although even if they like Giolito, they probably don’t want to tie up their $22.025MM budget at the start of the offseason, especially if Giolito’s elbow continues to be an issue.
A bit of development in the coming days could increase Boston’s willingness to release QO. It may also increase his willingness to say no and explore the market. Even if they do offer, he’ll have a few weeks to talk to other teams and assess his market before making a decision on QO. His marketability to non-Boston teams will depend on his health and his willingness to be a QO.
Photos courtesy of Eric Canha, Imagn Images
