Another free agent reliever has come off the board. The Mets reportedly agreed Devin Williams A three-year contract guarantees Klutch Sports customers $51MM, although the net present value is reduced by $15MM due to the extension.
Williams will receive a $6 million signing bonus, payable in $2 million installments. His annual salary is $15MM, of which $5MM is deferred each season. (The signing bonus will be paid even under the lockout, and players will not be paid for any games lost due to the lockout in 2027.) There is also a reported $1MM in allocation bonuses if a trade occurs.
Williams was drafted in the second round by the Brewers in 2013 and took some time to establish himself as a starting pitcher in the minor leagues. He took off after being moved to the bullpen in 2019, climbing from Double-A to the majors at the end of the season. Williams has emerged as one of the best late-game weapons in the sport in his first full major league season. He posted a 0.33 ERA in 27 innings during the shortened 2020 schedule and won the National League Rookie of the Year and Relief Pitcher awards.
The right-hander continued to dominate over the next few seasons, with Josh Hader. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns served as Milwaukee’s front-office leader for much of that tenure. Williams entered the ninth inning when Milwaukee sent Hader to San Diego at the ’22 deadline. He had 36 saves in 40 attempts and had a 1.53 ERA, earning his second career Relief Player of the Year honors a year later.
In his first four full seasons, Williams had a 1.75 ERA and a 40.5% strikeout rate. Entering 2024, his status as MLB’s best reliever is controversial. He suffered his first real setback in spring training, when tests revealed two stress fractures in his back. He didn’t make his season debut until shortly before the trade deadline. Williams looked absolutely dominant during the regular season, hitting 21 2/3 triples and striking out 38 on the year. His season ended in heartbreaking fashion as he surrendered a leadoff home run to Pete Alonso In the final game of the Wild Card Series.
It ended up being Williams’ last game in a Milwaukee uniform. The Brewers flipped him to the Yankees as a starter before his final year of arbitration Nestor Cortes and a rookie infielder. Caleb Durbin. The Yankees believe they are acquiring one of the ten best relievers in the sport. At least Williams’ results didn’t live up to those expectations.
The 31-year-old right-hander had an inconsistent season in the Bronx. He started off poorly, giving up a lot of points in three of his first 10 games. A string of poor performances in late April led the Yankees to move him into the starting job and schedule him Luke Weaver Back to the ninth inning. Williams endured another difficult outing in early May before getting into top form over the next few weeks. When Weaver went on the injured list in early June, he was back in lockdown.
Since then, Williams has been in a slump during the All-Star break. However, he gave up seven runs in his first nine possessions of the second half, and the Yankees took him out of the closer position for good after getting a chance. David Bednar at the trade deadline. Despite striking out nearly 40 percent of his batters, Williams posted a 5.06 ERA in the second half — second-best among qualified relievers. Mason Miller. He served in a reserve role late in the season and in the playoffs. Williams threw four scoreless pitches in the postseason, striking out four of them.
The end result was a career-worst 4.79 ERA in 67 games. The Mets made a pretty big bet that poor run prevention was just a fluke. When runners are on base, opponents are batting .339. It was easily the highest score of Williams’ career (aside from his brief debut in 2019). As a result, he struggled to get runners in trouble. While repeaters certainly need to be able to get out of trouble, this has never been an issue before.
Batting metrics can be inconsistent, especially for relievers who only throw 60-70 innings a season. Williams’ game is still very good, and he still has the ability to miss strikes at a level that no other pitcher can match. He struck out 34.7 percent of his opponents at a swing rate of 16.8 percent. Those numbers were down slightly from his usual numbers, but still among the best in Major League Baseball. Among relievers with 50 or more innings pitched, Williams ranks eighth in strikeout rate and 10th in strikeout rate.
Williams has two pitches and his usage rates have been roughly equal over the past few seasons. His fastball velocity is around 94 mph, and while it’s a good pitch, his best offering is his unique “Airbender” screwball/changeup. The pitch movement remains unlike any other in the league, with opponents batting below .200 in every full season of his career.
The underlying numbers make Williams a popular “buy low” target among teams and fans. This is confirmed to some extent in the contract. If Williams has another sub-2.00 ERA season, he could compete for a $100 contract. That doesn’t force him to accept a pillow contract, as he’s still getting paid as a high-end reliever. Williams is well below four years and $72MM Tanner Scott order last winter, but he was in the 46-58MM range with the Terminator Robert Suarez, Liam Hendricks and Raisel Iglesias Found himself over the past few offseasons. He finished four years and $68 below MLBTR’s projection, which ranked him as the second-best reliever in his class.
While a poor walk year ERA still has some impact on the pitching market, Williams is the third example this offseason of a team taking stuff and smells seriously. Dylan Seth Signed a seven-year contract with the Blue Jays and posted a 4.55 ERA in 32 starts. Ryan Helsley Even though his 2025 season with the Mets ended badly, he is still receiving $14MM per year from the Orioles on a two-year deal (with an opt-out). It would be easier for clubs to make that bet on a pitcher from a different team. The Mets were never likely to bring back Helsley, and while the Yankees were reportedly in contact with Williams’ camp, they also chose not to extend his $22.025MM qualifying offer, which would have kept him on his one-year contract.
The Mets clearly don’t think Williams can succeed in New York. He will play a key role in the final inning of Carlos Mendoza’s bullpen. He’s currently projected as a closer, but if the Mets return, he could move back to reserve Edwin Diazthey are reportedly still considering it. If the Mets allow their long near walk, they’ll need to bring in multiple right-handed relievers to close the gap on Williams in the ninth.
RosterResource projects the Mets’ 2026 salary and luxury tax commitments to be in the $277-280MM range. As they address the rotation, bullpen and/or first base and corner outfield issues, they could end up exceeding the final add-on threshold of $304MM. FanGraphs’ estimates currently put them in the Tier 2 penalty — just below Tier 3’s $284MM threshold. They’re taxed at a 62% rate on spending between $264MM and $284MM, so Williams’ signing would have a tax hit of about $8-$10MM, depending on the net present value calculation. They will pay 95% tax on spending between $284 and $304, and 110% tax on any amount over $304.
Will Sammon of The Athletic reports that the Mets and Williams have agreed to a three-year contract. ESPN’s Jeff Passan notes that the guaranteed amount is over $50, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post breaks down the salary/bonuses/deferred payments. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic took first place in the mission bonus.
Photo courtesy of Wendell Cruz of Imagn Images.
