MLB Mail Bags: Cardinal, Oriole, Astronaut, Schwarber, Casas

Mail bags this week cover trade value Willson Contreras,,,,, Sonny Grayand Nolan ArenadoOrioles in this winter need, the astronaut’s infield logjam, Kyle SchwarberCandidacy for Hall of Fame candidates and how the Red Sox will approach first base next year.

Sam asked:

What kind of reward does the Cardinal get if Willson Contreras agrees to abandon his NTC? Sonny Gray had the same problem. (Suppose Arenado is not relocated or the Cardinal is in most of his contract in exchange for PTBNL or similar to his limited team list)

Don’t ask:

Assuming Arenado and Gray are exempt from NTC, what can the Cardinal move them? Will Arenado become a non-candidate?

It is hard to assume that Contreras, Gray or Arenado will also give up on their no-trade clauses, even for or for arguments. That’s because these players basically never entertain to say, “Well, I agree to the deal with 29 other teams. Keep going!” They’ll do something similar to what Arenado did last winter: provide a list of approved teams, or tell GM that if the deal is completed, you’ll take it on a case-by-case basis.

I think these questions are more about getting trade value for each participant, so let’s evaluate it.

Contreras will become the Cardinal’s full-time first baseman on May 34 next year. Maybe a new team will consider using him here or there after using his plate, especially if an automated ball system is implemented, but we mainly consider him as a first baseman/DH.

Contreras dealt with some minor injuries this year, but has not avoided IL until today. His season is over due to pressure on his right shoulder. Contreras managed to release 123 WRC+ in a career-high 563 set appearance, with 2.8 Fangraphs War in 135 games.

If we give Contreras some grace to grace as he has to adapt to his new defensive duties in April, it is worth noting that he has 135 WRC+ since May. Here are the potential top 20 batsmen in the game, and there are a lot of reds on his Statcast page Rafael Devers and Bryce Harper. I don’t think Contreras has that reputation, but that’s what I’ve seen. As Cherry on the top, his first basic defense seems to be average or higher.