This week’s mailbag goes into Orioles starting pitching targets, whether the Tigers have pieces beyond their championship core Tarik Skubalmany hypothetical trade scenarios, and more.
Tim asked:
I appreciate all the work you put into the top 50 free agent lists and the top 40 trade candidates. My question is: Do you really want the Orioles to pursue any of the top rotation pitchers? I have a hard time believing Mike Elias would pursue a pitcher like this through free agency, as evidenced by his risk-averse history. Please calm my worries that we are going to repeat the lackluster performance we had last offseason.
This question:
After their (Sugano, Morton, Gibson) tepid foray into the starting pitching market last year with less-than-stellar results, do you think Baltimore will adjust their strategy in the starting pitching market and target higher-end weapons? If so, do you think a trade or a free agent signing is more likely?
These questions tie together nicely as we try to guess whether Elias will repeat his overly cautious approach to rotation, or learn from it.
The Orioles signed all the big-name players last offseason but clearly didn’t like the price tag on any of them. By January 3, the Orioles had committed Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton. The only quality starting pitcher left on the market at the time was Nick Pivetta.
Part of Elias’ stupidity lies in dependence Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Eflin. Injuries have been a near-constant presence throughout Rodriguez’s major league career. Eflin has maintained good health heading into the 2023-24 season, but he has also dealt with chronic knee and back pain. While he pitched very well for the Orioles in nine regular-season starts in ’24, his success was primarily in his pitching.
I’ve written in this space before that retaining a well-respected prospect who ultimately doesn’t pan out is just as bad as a prospect whose deal does pan out. Elias won’t be fired for holding on Heston Shellstad or Kobe Mayo last winter, but you have to wonder if Garrett Crochet or Jesus Luzardo Might become an Oriole. Orioles give up Joey Ortiz and DL Hall to get corbin burnsbut did not seize a similar opportunity last winter.
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