japanese slugger Munataka Murakami MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports that Nippon Professional Baseball’s Yakult Swallows will make the announcement. This scenario has long been expected, as reports emerged three years ago that Murakami planned to move to MLB after 2025, but this report confirms that Murakami will be a key free agent to watch this winter.
The timing of the release is no coincidence. Under Major League Baseball’s international free agency rules, players under the age of 25 are considered “amateur” players. These “amateur” players are subject to an international bonus pool system in which teams have annual budgets of approximately $4MM to $9MM. The situation at that time was like this Sasaki Riki It was released before his age-23 season. He eventually signed with the Dodgers and received a $6.5MM signing bonus, far less than what he would have received through an open bid. He is also treated as a minor leaguer because he will earn around the league minimum until he is eligible for arbitration and will be under club control until he accrues six years of major league service time.
Murakami wouldn’t be in the same situation as Sasaki. Therefore, under current rules, he turns 25 in February and will be considered a professional player. Once he officially takes over, he will be free to negotiate with all 30 clubs within 45 days, with no restrictions on the types of offers he can receive. This situation is more similar to Yoshinobu Yamamotohe also signed with the Dodgers. His 12-year, $325MM contract is a far cry from Sasaki’s.
Sasaki is eager to join Major League Baseball, so he’s young, even though that path is significantly less profitable. It’s understandable that Murakami waited until after his 25th birthday, when a big payday should come.
What remains to be seen is how strong the market is for him. Over the course of his NPB career, he’s shown tremendous power potential, but also shown real strikeout concerns. He typically hits 30 to 40 home runs per year, although he hit 56 in the 2022 season. This year, he missed most of the season with an oblique injury and played in just 56 games, but in that small sample, he managed to hit 22 pitches over the fence.
This year he has been knocked down 64 times in 224 games, a rate of 28.6%. During his amazing 2022 season, his shooting percentage dropped to 20.6%, but now he’s been above 28% for three straight years. Overall, he hit .270/.394/.557 in his NPB career. Since MLB pitches have higher velocity and higher quality than NPB pitches, his strikeout rate will likely increase with movement. For reference, the average MLB hitting percentage this year is 22.2%, and only nine qualified hitters are over 28%.
Murakami primarily served as a third baseman during his time with the Swallows. He also dabbled in first base this year and even briefly dabbled in left field. Scouting reports generally have him as a center fielder who will likely be a first baseman in the long term.
That would put more pressure on his bat, but some clubs might prefer to let him play third base for a few years. Teams will also have different opinions on how he will adapt to MLB pitching.
For players coming from Japan, there are all kinds of different results. As mentioned before, Yamamoto was interested enough that he was able to sign a 12-year deal with an opt-out. Shota Imaga A creative four-year guarantee comes after two seasons, with a multi-year club option and player option structure. Seiya Suzuki and Masataka Yoshida Received consecutive five-year contracts worth 85MM and 90MM respectively. Both hitters have higher NPB batting averages than Murakami, but have different power ceilings.
With the Dodgers bringing in so many Japanese stars, many fans are hoping that’s the outcome here. However, it’s not a perfect roster match. The Dodgers have freddie freeman first base and Shohei Ohtani In designated batting position. They have an affordable 10MM club available Max Muncy Will be their third baseman next year. Signing Murakami can’t be completely ruled out, but it would likely require them to move on from Muncy, who has been a cornerstone of the club for years and still puts up good numbers, or possibly try to use Murakami as an outfielder. Even if Muncy’s option is taken, he will become a free agent after 2026, and Freeman is only under contract through 2027, so the long-term fit is better than the short-term fit.
The Red Sox would be a better fit now because Alex Bregman It’s likely he will opt out of his deal, and the club has questions at first base. Mets have first base open Pete Alonso Setting up the opt-out, they also had no clear answer at third base. The Yankees could put him at first base, Paul Goldschmidt become a free agent and Ben Rice Ability to capture. The Cubs have Matt Shaw Finished third last winter but almost signed Bregman, so maybe they’re still willing to pursue outside options there. The Tigers currently have Zach McKinstry No. 3, but he has the ability to play elsewhere. Angels have no long-term solution at third base due to ongoing injuries Anthony Rendon. Mariners are about to lose Eugenio Suarez Become a free agent. The Reds have no clear answer at first base.
His market will become clearer over time. Swallows will have to pay a posting fee no matter which club signs him. Mailing charges are calculated at 20% of the first $25MM of the contract, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of expenses above $50MM.
Photo by Sam Navarro, Image Images
