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Oil prices fall as investors brace for OPEC+ production increase

Oil prices fell on Friday morning ahead of expected production increases from OPEC and its allies.

At the time of writing, Brent crude oil (BZ=F) futures were down 0.2% at $63.75 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude oil (CL=F) was also down, at $60.47 a barrel.

OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on Sunday, and reports suggest the group will announce a slight increase in December production by 137,000 barrels per day, having previously decided to increase November production by the same amount.

“Uncertainty surrounding Russian sanctions also supported the growth,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, and Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist.

“However, this move will only reinforce the market’s pessimistic outlook, adding to the large surpluses expected through 2026. Obviously, this assumes no supply shock in Russia.”

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The United States last week announced sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, accusing Moscow of lacking commitment to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine.

The U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, saying they were aimed at increasing pressure on Russia’s energy sector and hampering its ability to raise revenue to fund the war and support the economy.

Oil prices surged after the news was announced on expectations it could disrupt and tighten market supply. However, prices fell slightly due to concerns about falling demand and oversupply.

Gold prices rose on Friday morning as investors digested the outcome of Thursday’s meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea.

Gold futures (GC=F) edged up 0.2% to $4,022.10 an ounce at the time of writing, while spot gold was up 0.4% at $4,011.91 an ounce.

The two leaders agreed to a one-year trade truce until November 2026, with the United States lowering fentanyl-related tariffs and China pledging to delay restrictions on rare earth exports.

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Jim Reid, head of macro and thematic research at Deutsche Bank (DBK.DE), said: “Despite this stabilization, structural differences remain and the lack of concrete commitments makes it easy to cast some doubts about the scope of the deal.”

“The U.S. Trade Representative has added to the sense that we are seeing more of an extension of the truce than a de-escalation. [Jamieson] Greer confirmed last night that the United States would continue to investigate China’s compliance with the limited trade agreement reached during Trump’s first term. “

Sterling was steady against the US dollar (GBPUSD=X) on Friday, trading at $1.314 at the time of writing, as investors weighed the latest geopolitical and economic developments.

Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at global financial services firm Ebury, said: “Budget tightness and growing bets on a December rate cut from the Bank of England have put the pound on the back foot so far this week, with the pound falling to the 1.31 level against the dollar yesterday and to its lowest level against the euro since May 2023.”

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% on Wednesday to a range of 3.75% to 4%. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a news conference after the central bank’s meeting that another rate cut in December is “not a done deal – far from it.”

“There are very different views on how to proceed in December,” he said.

The dollar rose after Powell’s cautious comments lowered expectations for a December rate cut.

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“The U.S. dollar received more support yesterday from Fed Chairman Powell’s hawkish press conference and the tail effects of the U.S.-China trade deal,” said Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING.

However, he said ING’s short-term “short-term view on the dollar remains more of a ‘lack of direction’ rather than the start of a more sustainable rebound.”

The U.S. dollar index (DX-Y.NYB), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six currencies, was steady at 99.56 on Friday morning.

In terms of other currency trends, the pound fell 0.1% against the euro (GBPEUR=X) on Friday morning, to 1.1352 euros at the time of writing.

More broadly, the FTSE 100 index (^FTSE) fell 0.4% to 9,719 points in early European trade. For more details on market movements, check out our live coverage.

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