After more than 100 days of President Trump’s sign of promotion and economic self-immunity, Congressional Republicans need to resettle to save their political destiny. House Speaker Mike Johnson is relying on spending and tax cuts to provide that shock, and many House committees are now working quickly to bring bills he promised to deliver to Mr. Trump by Independence Day.
What Mr. Trump calls this “a big and beautiful bill” contains most of the president’s legislative agenda. Indeed, the strategy made the bill too big to fail, betting that Wavering Averning members would be reluctant to vote and provide such a stinging failure to their party leaders.
But what if it passes, voters hardly notice it?
Details are still being made, but the bill may include cuts in Medicaid, as well as increased funding for immigration enforcement and the military. However, the bill is at its core, expanding the 2017 tax law, mainly to lower personal income tax rates. As the president’s stupid use of tariffs shaky economy, the government said expanding the law is an urgent priority, which will calm markets and provide economic enhancement.
Republican congressional leaders, Sen. John Thune and Mr. Johnson should not say they think the bill would save Republicans from Mr. Trump’s tariff impact. Leaders are now facing the political problem of integration: all party energy aims to pass the bill, for which voters may not reward them, and efforts are likely to save them from putting more pressure on Mr. Trump to stop tariffs.
Many Republicans hope the tax bill will bear the economic damage caused by Trump’s tariffs, but this is extremely unlikely. The way Trump talks about legislative programs in particular doesn’t help them. He and Republican leaders have sold the extension of the tax law as a tax cut “to everyone”. Trump said last month that it would be “the biggest bill in our country’s history in terms of tax cuts and tax cuts and other things.” But the reality is that for most people, it’s not cut at all. The interest rates they’ve kept have reached over seven years.
In 2017, as an advisor to House Speaker Paul Ryan, I helped pass the Tax Cuts and Work Act. This is a big achievement, and I am proud of it, and I work with groups that want to expand it. The law makes American businesses more competitive by permanently reducing corporate tax rates and eliminating dozens of unproductive carvings from businesses. It simplifies personal tax laws and brings meaningful relief to families within nearly every tax range. Covid has masked the scale of its ultimate economic impact, but it undoubtedly fueled a strong economy before the pandemic.
Now, allowing the expiration provisions of the law will greatly increase household tax revenues at the moment of economic confidence. Congress should absolutely expand the law and prevent tax increases for Americans.
The political issue is that there is little new to voters. Despite Mr. Trump’s slamming of the execution action, his legislative plans remain small. Congress has not been asked to reorganize the federal government or a new workforce development program like Mamen so we can prepare for re-creating American manufacturing. The president has proposed some new tax breaks, such as tips, overtime pay and social security people. But these policies may be narrow.
Even if permanently increasing the income tax rate provides a certain degree of economic certainty and encourages investment, this simply doesn’t match the hair dryer the president brings to the economy with the tariff regime. Democrats have made it clear that they will try to make Republicans pay for Medicaid cuts, which is perhaps the most tangible policy change some Americans will feel.
In 2018, voters largely ignored the tax cuts that Republicans just passed. Democrats put a majority in the House of Representatives in the mid-year Congress that year.
Today, Republicans have only one slim majority, facing the challenge of the House and maintaining unified Republican control. History is not with them. Since Bill Clinton, every president has been George W. after 9/11 George W. To defy history and maintain control of the house, Republicans will need to convince voters that they are working on the cost of living and creating a buzzing economy.
Of course, the President is moving us in another direction, raising costs with tariffs and hitting the market. Many economists warn that the biggest impact of tariffs, higher prices and empty shelves will not arrive until this summer – just to further mask the potential passage of the president’s tax cuts.
An obvious answer to this developing question is that Congressional leaders are to force Mr. Trump to retreat from his trade policy, or God forbids, to regain the Congress’ constitutional authority over tariffs.
Here, Mr. Thune and Mr. Johnson face political difficulties and fall into a trap. They shy away from criticizing Mr. Trump’s trade policy, probably because they need his political muscles to get tax extensions through Congress. But this allows the president to continue to take a destructive path for the economy and its majority in Congress. Economics are not the only thing that matters politically, but it is the first thing. Without a stable economic foundation, members of the House of Representatives in the battlefield area face a dangerous road to re-election.
It seems like the midterm election was concerned early, but the next few weeks will determine that Republicans will have to show voters unified control over Washington.
Passing a bill to prevent tax rates from rising is a necessary action. But Congress leaders should not deceive themselves. Unless they (or the market) can convince the president to back down on tariffs, this “a big and beautiful bill” may be tired of voters.
Communication strategist Brendan Buck was an advisor to Paul Ryan and press secretary to John Boehner, who was the House Speaker at the time.
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