Tensions in the East African country of South Sudan eventually led to the arrest of Vice President Riek Machar on March 26, sparking fears that the world’s youngest country is heading for another civil war.
His party, the opposition to the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM-IO), said his House arrests “effectively collapsed…” the fragile peace agreement of 2018 ended five years of battle.
What is the background?
South Sudan is one of the poorest countries in the world, and has been separated from Sudan in 2011 under the leadership of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM).
Independence for only two years, when Kiel dismissed Machar to the vice president, a civil war broke out, accusing him of planning a coup.
The ensuing conflict was largely racial struggle between supporters of the two leaders, killing about 400,000 people and 2.5 million people were forced to leave their homes – more than one-fifth of the population.
As part of the peace agreement, Machar was restored to the vice president of the unified government, aiming to pave the way for elections.
Why are you feeling nervous now?
The current crisis was triggered in early March, when White militias allied with Machar during the Civil War clashed with troops in the Upper Nile State and occupied military bases in Nasir.
Then on March 7, a United Nations helicopter attempting to evacuate troops caught fire, killing several deaths, including a senior army general.
Nearly three weeks later, Machar and several of his colleagues were arrested. They are accused of trying to inspire rebellion.
“The prospect of peace and stability in South Sudan is now in serious danger,” said Oyet Nathaniel Pierino, deputy leader of SPLM-IO.
What about the 2018 peace agreement?
While Machar’s inclusion in the unified government is a key part of the agreement, other parts have not been implemented yet.
The key issue for many South Sudanese is security arrangements.
The agreement outlines how former rebels and government soldiers gathered together a unified national army of 83,000 soldiers. The rest should be disarmed and demobilized.
But this hasn’t happened yet, and there are still many militias that are aligned with different political groups.
The agreement also outlined the agency with the help of the Court’s African Union, which aims to try violent criminals. But this was not created, partly because those who held some of the highest positions in the government were reluctant to establish something that could see them being tried.
The elections that should have been held in 2022 have not yet been held, and there is no new constitution.
What’s the problem between Machar and Kiel?
Although Kiir and Machar were both part of the SPLM fighting for independence in the 1970s, there were long-term tensions.
These are driven by racial divisions – Kiel is Dinka, while Machar is Machar, and has competitive political ambitions.
When Kiir fired Machar in 2013, Machar condemned him as a “dictator.”
Creating further problems between the two is the repeated election postponement. The poll has been postponed four times, preventing Machar from realizing his presidential ambitions.
Who is Riek Machar?
The 72-year-old was born in 1952 and is the 27th son of the leaders of Ayod and Leer, and grew up in Presbyterian Church.
As an undergraduate, he studied mechanical engineering at the University of Khartoum and received his PhD in Philosophy and Strategic Planning from the University of Bradford, UK in 1984.
He switched sides several times in the battle of Sudan’s separation from Sudan as he tried to strengthen his position and the status of the Nur people.
He became independent vice president of South Sudan in 2011. Machar was fired in 2013 and then resumed as part of the 2016 deal, but then fled the fight.
Who is Salva Kiir?
The 73-year-old devout Roman Catholic was born in 1951 and is the son of a cattle herder and the eighth of nine children.
At the age of 17, he joined Anyanya, one of the rebel groups fighting for southern independence during the first Sudanese civil war in 1967. Sixteen years later – in the Second Sudan Civil War – he was one of the five founding members of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army/Movement.
The former rebel commander specialized in military intelligence, was regarded as a moderate within the SPLM and became his leader in 2005 after John Garang died in a helicopter crash.
He became the independent president of South Sudan and has been in that position for 14 years due to the lack of elections.
How bad is it?
Nicholas Haysom, the head of the UN mission in South Sudan, warned that the country was “on the brink of a full-scale civil war” that would destroy countries that were still dealing with the consequences of the last conflict.
Daniel Akech, an analyst at the Crisis Group think tank, said there was concern that returning to the fight could lead to “agent warfare in the region.”
“South Sudan is filled with so many armed groups that they all seem to be preparing for military participation.”
The war near Sudan added another element of instability.
What measures are being taken to ease tensions?
The leaders of regional collective IGAD members, including Uganda, should be the guarantors of the 2018 deal.
Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni recently met Kiir in Juba, but the outcome of their discussion is unclear.
Last month, Ugandan troops were also deployed to the country. The South Sudan government said the deployment was part of a long-term agreement with neighbors, where soldiers supported the military.
The diplomats wanted to sit down with Machar, and there was no African Union delegation and talk to the president – but that didn’t happen. After visiting, there was no Australian statement.
Western embassies, including the United States and the United Kingdom, have issued statements calling for an extension of tensions, but the impacts of these are not yet clear.
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