President Trump said he focused on stopping the “death march” in Ukraine “as soon as possible”.
But for Russian President Vladimir Putin (V.
Russian and U.S. officials will meet in Saudi Arabia on Monday to deepen their negotiations on technical details of a partial ceasefire to stop attacks on energy facilities and Black Sea vessels. Although Ukraine said it was ready for a truce, Mr. Putin made it clear that he would seek broad concessions first.
The result: The Kremlin seems determined to squeeze out as much of the benefits as possible from Mr. Trump’s desire for a peace deal in Ukraine, even though it negotiates slowly. From Moscow, a better connection to Washington is an economic and geopolitical gift that can be achieved even if Russian missiles continue to slam the Ukraine.
Interviews with figures of Russia’s high foreign policy at a security meeting in New Delhi last week showed that the Kremlin negotiated Ukraine-US-Russia relations as it runs on two separate tracks. Mr. Putin continues to seek far-reaching victory in Ukraine, but is humoring Mr. Trump’s ceasefire to seize the benefits of melting with Washington.
Vyacheslav Nikonov, vice chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Russian Parliament’s Lower House of Commons, said Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin were developing a “bilateral agenda” that “has nothing to do with Ukraine.”
“Ukraine is running,” Mr. Nikonov said in an interview with the New Delhi Conference. “The offense is in progress.” “But I think that for Putin, relations with the United States are particularly important than those of Ukraine.”
Moscow’s thoughts interact with Trump can unlock economic benefits, just as basic benefits as Russian Boeing jets and geopolitical parts, as widespread as reducing NATO’s presence in Europe. It is unclear whether Mr. Trump will use these hopes to get a better deal for Ukraine and whether he will lose patience with Mr. Putin at some point.
“Mr. Trump likes to trade quickly,” said international affairs expert Aleksandr A. Dynkin. “If he finds that there are big difficulties, he may be disappointed and put the issue aside.”
As a result, Mr. Putin seems to be doing his best to stop Trump’s interests.
Mr. Witkov said in an interview released on Saturday that Putin met with White House envoy Steve Witkoff in Moscow this month, and Mr. Putin handed over the “beautiful portrait of Trump” by Russian artists.
“It’s such a cordial moment,” Witkov told former Fox News host Tucker Carlson.
In Ukraine, Mr. Putin showed no sign of his far-reaching goal – guaranteeing that Ukraine will never join NATO, a rollback of the Western alliance between Central and Eastern Europe, restrictions on Ukraine’s military, and a certain degree of influence on Ukraine’s domestic politics.
Feodor Voitolovsky, director of the Moscow Institute for World Economics and International Relations, said Russia will seek a “roadmap” to reach a broader agreement and then agree to any ceasefire.
He also said that Russia could accept Ukraine’s United Nations peacekeeping force as long as it does not include troops from NATO countries.
“For Russia, a long-term perspective is more valuable than a tactical ceasefire,” said Mr. Votolovsky, who serves on the Advisory Committee for the Russian Foreign Ministry and Security Council. He added: “We can use a model that allows Russia and the United States as well as Russia and NATO to coexist without interfering with each other’s areas of interest.”
To reach such a deal, Russia is attracting Mr. Trump’s business-minded attention. Mr Voitolovsky believes that a broad agreement on Ukraine is a prerequisite for U.S.-Russia cooperation, and Mr. Trump “as a businessman” understands that Russia’s assets are currently undervalued.
Mr Dynkin, an expert on international affairs in Russia, said the Kremlin could remove the United States from its list of “unfriendly countries”, a category that limits the ability of U.S. companies to conduct business in Russia.
He said Moscow is particularly interested in negotiations on the aviation sector, according to challenges facing Russian Airlines in repairing US-made jets. He said the United States could allow export of spare parts to aircraft and resume direct flights to Moscow. Russia can allow American Airlines to fly over Siberia, which is Russia’s right to withdraw in 2022.
Anastasia Likhacheva, President of International Affairs for Higher Economics in Moscow, said Mr. Trump is unlikely to provide fast and far-reaching sanctions relief.
But she said the melting of relations with the United States could lead to reduced sanctions enforcement and allowed Russian companies to signal that Russia is no longer a problematic partner, making it easier for Russian companies to do business globally.
“This kind of detox can be useful and will expand our menu of possibilities,” she said.
