Lisa Baertlein
NEW ORLEANS (Reuters) – US truck drivers are moving record-breaking auto parts, appliances and sneakers, with customers stocking up on stocks ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, but the industry slowdown is vaguely visible as these new responsibilities begin to suffocate economic activity.
The $900.6 billion U.S. trucking industry is withdrawing from the freight recession in nearly three years before Trump took office on January 20.
Dean Croke, chief analyst at DAT Freight and Anallytics at Roper Technologies, told Reuters that truck drivers are moving more this month than they did during the peak of the pandemic in 2021.
The volume is masking deteriorating demand in key sectors, especially domestic manufacturing, which drives more than 60% of large rig miles and marine imports.
“As this trade war develops, things are already rushing to change southward,” Crocker said of the prospects for trucking in the United States.
“These signals are not good for the demand for trucks.”
As of Monday, the spot rate for a semi-trailer merchandise called a dry van was $1.60 per mile, excluding fuel, slightly higher than $1.54 a year ago, Crocker said. He expects year-on-year sales to remain flat again in 2025, with the tax rate being small if any.
“Discussions on tariffs and fluid trade policies have inspired a more cautious tone for shippers, which has put momentum in the market pausing the market,” Adam Miller, CEO of the Knights Team, said on the company’s earnings call on Wednesday.
He said that while some of the Cavaliers’ referees won the victory, the trend is at risk if the quantity and competition are weak.
Bump ahead
The fate of American truck drivers is important because they touch almost every sector of the U.S. economy and were one of the first to register for changes in business activities.
The American Truck Transportation Association in January predicted that the number of industries will grow by 1.6% in 2025. ATA did not respond to a request for comment.
Meanwhile, the crucial manufacturing industry in the United States was signed in March after two consecutive months.
The unexpected weakness of single-family allowable starts in March, where U.S. home construction is at risk of recession.
In addition, U.S. companies imported from China have been suspending orders after Trump reached the country with 145% tariffs. China retaliated against 125% tariffs on U.S. goods, including beef and exports that may be moved by truck.
