The invasion of NATO airspace blamed on Russia reached an unprecedented scale this month, on whether the Kremlin tried to test the alliance’s will and capabilities against direct attacks or shift its attention and resources from Ukraine’s war.
Russia has been invading the airspace of its NATO neighbors for decades and then denied that it was unintentional. However, the invasion has been subject to greater threats since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with drones pouring into Poland only two weeks ago and causing NATO to climb onto the jets to shoot it down.
Estonia said Russian fighters flew to its territory last week and stayed there for 12 minutes – a foreign minister who invaded Estonia was described as “no premise” but Russia denied that it happened. Romania and Latvia reported that single Russian drones violated airspace this month.
As Moscow makes slow and steady progress on the Ukrainian battlefield, the temporary NATO airspace has also raised questions, which has also caused people’s doubts if it is decided to talk to peace.
Here are what is happening and what Russia might be motivating:
These intrusions are different
No NATO airspace invasion is as far as what happened in Poland on September 10. It marked the first direct military involvement between the coalition and Russia since the full invasion of Ukraine.
Russia denied it targeted Poland, and its ally Belarus claimed that the signal of the drone was plagued by Ukraine, which bordered Poland. However, European leaders viewed it as a intentional provocation, indicating a violation of Estonian airspace and other recent events last week to further demonstrate some of Moscow’s well-planned plans.
Possible Motives in Russia
Before the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Kremlin asked NATO to abandon any plans to provide Kiev members near the Russian border and deploy near the Russian border, including Baltic countries in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, small Soviet republics connected to NATO and EU in the early 2000s. NATO rejected the request.
Russian President Vladimir Putin also warned NATO not to allow Kyiv to attack inside Russia with longer-range weapons supported by Western power, threatening Moscow to respond through military facilities targeting NATO countries to cause such attacks. Doing so will bring huge risks, including Moscow, as it may trigger direct conflict between Russia and NATO, which have huge advantages in traditional weapons.
Some experts believe that the recent growth of NATO airspace invasions is a Russian attempt to understand the alliance’s response so that any cracks can be exploited or hesitated. Some believe that Russia wants to divert NATO’s attention and resources from supporting Ukraine to defending its territory.
“Maybe their calculations are that now European countries must also provide Estonia with something about air defense assets, which means they can’t send it to Ukraine,” said Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur. “Russia is trying to tear us off from Ukraine.”
Mark Galeotti, a Russian political expert who runs Mayak Intelligence consulting firm, believes the invasion is part of a “forced signal” designed to prevent NATO members from providing strong security assurances to Kiev, including handing over their troops to Ukraine as part of a peaceful deal. Moscow warned that it will not accept any NATO forces in Ukraine.
“This is what Moscow is trying to say, ‘Just see how dangerous they are already, how dangerous they become. Remember, we are more bold, intentional, reckless, firm – use whatever adjective you want, but the point is, we are more.'” Galeotti said in the podcast.
Edward Lucas, a senior researcher at the European Center for Policy Analysis, said Russia may be trying to highlight NATO’s weaknesses in an attempt to “plant corrosive questions in the minds of allies: Are you willing to fight Russia on behalf of the Baltic states?”
“Russia doesn’t need to defeat NATO politically,” Lucas wrote in an analysis. “If the members of the alliance don’t think other members will be helped when attacking, they will feel isolated.”
Max Bergmann of the European, Russian and Eurasian Program Center said Russia may particularly want to assess the reaction of the United States, the largest member of NATO.
“I think it’s very impressive,” he said of the US response to the invasion. “I think what we’re seeing is that the US under President Trump does not take any responsibility for European security, which will be an inspiration for the Russians. They may escalate further.”
NATO’s response and American role
Following the drone swarm incident, Poland triggered a NATO mechanism that allows any member to believe that its territorial integrity, political independence or security is threatened. Soon after, the league launched an action to strengthen air defense on its eastern side.
NATO held another discussion on Tuesday in response to Russian fighter jets flying into Estonian airspace and warned Moscow that there would be any means and prevent further violations.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Poland will “not discuss” shooting down any object flying towards its territory.
But it is not clear whether all NATO allies will adopt this aggressive approach, and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said Tuesday that the decision on whether to violate the aircraft will be based on “available intelligence on the threats formed by the aircraft.”
U.S. President Donald Trump shocked allies initially saying that Russian drones were “a mistake” against Polish airspace, and sent a more difficult message Tuesday, answering affirmatively when asked whether NATO should shoot down an invading Russian aircraft. However, he objected to this if the United States stepped in to support the alliance in this case.
