Source: Brookings, “Public School Registration Decline”, August 2025
Private school enrollment
Prior to the pandemic, the share of students in traditional public schools remained stable, hovering nearly 85% between 2016 and 2020. After the pandemic, traditional public school enrollment fell below 80%, but no rebound.
The mysterious missing children explains most of the decline. But families also turned to charters and virtual schools. Charter school enrollment rate rose from 5% of students in 2016-17 to 6% in 2023-24. The number of children attending virtual schools doubled from 0.7% before the pandemic in 2019-20 to 1.2% in 2020-21 and remained higher.
Surprisingly, according to this Brookings estimate, private school enrollment has remained nearly 9% of school-age children between 2016-17 and 2023-24.
I had expected private school enrollment surges with the rise of public schools disrupting families during the pandemic, while 11 states, including Arizona and Florida, have launched their own educational savings accounts or new coupon programs to help pay for tuition. But another analysis released this month by Tulane researchers responded to Brookings’ figures. The study found that between 2021 and 2024, private school enrollment increased by only 3% to 4% compared to states without credentials. The new federal tax credit that fundes private school scholarships is more than a year away from the entry into force on January 1, 2027, and perhaps a larger shift to private education is still leading.
Traditional public schools have the greatest flaw in black and high poverty areas
I would guess that wealthy families who can afford private schools are more likely to seek alternatives. However, high-poverty areas have the largest students outside the traditional public school field. In addition to private schools, they also participate in charters, virtual schools, professional schools for students with disabilities or other alternative schools, or homeschooling.
More than a quarter of students in high-poverty areas do not attend traditional public schools, while one in six of students in low-poverty areas do not enroll. The steepest public school enrollment losses are concentrated in predominantly black school districts. Mainly one-third of students in black areas are not in traditional public schools, and twice the share of white and Hispanic students.
Share of student enrollment outside traditional public schools through regional poverty
Source: Brookings, “Public School Registration Decline”, August 2025
Do not divide the share of students in traditional public schools
Source: Brookings, “Public School Registration Decline”, August 2025
These differences are important for students who stay in traditional public schools. Now, schools in low-income and black communities are losing the most students, forcing higher budgets.
Demographic bomb
Before the pandemic, schools in the United States had entered a huge contraction. Now, American women have only 1.7 children in their lifetime, which is far below the 2.1 fertility rate required for alternative populations. Fertility rates are expected to decline further. Brookings analysts believe that despite current immigration restrictions, more immigrants continue to enter the country, but are not enough to offset the decline in births.
Even if families return to pre-hospital enrollment, the decline in population means a decrease of 2.2 million public school students by 2050. But if parents choose other types of schools at the rate observed since 2020, traditional public schools could lose up to 8.5 million students, shrinking from 2023-24 to 4306 million to almost $34.57 billion in the mid-term.
Among the missing students, some black families and families in high poverty are creating, and how many children are born, the public school landscape is shifting. Tie the kit and prepare for mass public schools to close.
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