The world order in the past few decades may have ended – may appear in China
Just as U.S. President Donald Trump competes with almost the entire world with tariffs, and the trade war between the two largest economies escalates exponentially, about whether the world order collapses irreversibly, and which countries may emerge as new leaders.
“We know it’s dead, and the world order for the past 80 years has died,” said Cameron Johnson, a senior partner at Shanghai-based supply chain consulting firm Tidalwave Solutions.
As Countries everywhere are trying to respond to their responses For Trump High tariffs – Now outside the 90-day suspension of the benchmark 10% – Some analysts say the world may have no choice but to promote trade and cooperation towards Asia, especially as the U.S. regime seems increasingly unpredictable.
The consequences of tits
On April 2, Trump shot 10% tariffs in almost every country. Many people are getting more and more difficult. China is one of them, accounting for 34%.
That action triggered Full tits With the rapid growth of Beijing.
Although many countries are trying to negotiate with Trump, there is at least no sign that it is at least unpredictable.
In fact, the opposite is true. have Latest suspension. Then, currently facing a 125% tariff with China’s escalation, while a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry vowed that the country would “fight to the end” if the United States does not back down. On Wednesday, China’s tariff rate on U.S. imports was 84%. It also places export restrictions on rare earth elements (critical to electric vehicles, weapons and computer chips).
Johnson, an American in Shanghai, said Trump’s recent actions will only “consolidate China’s impact in supply chains in Asia and Africa.”
“In this region, at least, no one thinks the United States has shared values with them,” he said.
“The whole world is moving here. If you are not on that train, you will be screwed up and your people will be screwed up, that’s not good.”
China is in an offensive
Especially because the detailed tariff countries include The United States tries to hold a court like Vietnamto strategically bridge the supply chain between the United States and China.
As the trade war between the two escalates, China is in a vulnerable location. Andrew Chang then explains why the math used to determine President Donald Trump’s global reciprocity tariffs is misleading.
Instead, China has positioned itself for years as a country where others can engage in commerce and trade, most notably Large roads and road initiativesa series of global infrastructure projects designed to strengthen its economic and political footprint. In many ways, it can be said that the reshaping of the world order began with Trump’s second term.
Over the past 20 years, China has become Africa’s largest trading partner. Since 2009, it has also been The largest trading partner Association of Southeast Asian Countries (ASEAN) Countries.
“[China is] “The only country with funds, people and technology that can help developing countries,” Johnson said.
In fact, countries that want to invest and technology may be forced to turn to China as technology leaders and the world’s second largest economy.
Emotionally, countries whose U.S. tariffs are hurt may look for alternatives.
“This makes China a long-term winner,” Johnson said.
All Asian countries may benefit; China, South Korea and Japan have held their first meeting in five years.
China and Europe
Despite the dramatic relationship, China and European countries may also be getting closer and closer Recent anti-dumping investigations.
Chinese Prime Minister Lee Kunge and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Tuesday Make a phone call The Commission said it stressed the “importance of maintaining the continuity and stability of EU relations”.
Negotiations will be in EU tariffs on electric vehicles made in China were levied last fall. (Still no explanation whether it is Canada intends to maintain its 100% tariff, Based on the US taxes in the Biden era, it is for electric vehicles in China.
In March, British Energy Minister Ed Miliband visited China to attend the first formal climate meeting held by the two countries in nearly a decade.
Despite growing backlash at home and abroad, U.S. President Donald Trump defended his tariff plan on Tuesday, including a 104% tariff on China after refusing to propose retaliation against U.S. goods.
However, thawing between China and Europe can be fragile.
Notably – von der Leyen said in a call with Prime Minister Li this week that she was worried about the overflowing Chinese goods with U.S. tariffs that could drive the region further and further.
Canada’s low-risk strategy
Some analysts say Canada should also consider strengthening its ties with China.
In March, Prime Minister Mark Carney Leave the campaign trail And traveled to Europe last month, his first international trip since he was sworn in.
“They focus on a low-risk strategy,” said Gregory Chin, associate professor at the University of York in Toronto.
Later that month, when asked about the Chinese ambassador to Ottawa discussing promoting trade relations, Carney said he was wary.
“There are some partners in Asia that we can build deeper connections [with]“-But this does not include China.
Chinese courtship may put additional pressure on Western countries.
“In fact, it’s very difficult to deal with a country with a completely different industrial policy and economic structure,” said Dan Wang, director of the Chinese consulting firm Eurasia Group.
But, Chin said, Canada needs to consider this. “Ignoring this would be stupid [China],” he said.
“Western ideas … lead the traditional way, and the world has moved on,” he said. “We are in a multipolar world. We have been there for ten years, and more.”
Risks of close ties with China
However, Chin acknowledges inherent risks.
China is accused of raising trade barriers, making it difficult for other countries to export goods there. this The EU lists 31 typesincluding heavy administrative procedures, including the highest in the world.
US Annual Report Details 50 pages suspected of trade abuse.
Dan Trefler, professor at the Rotman School of Management at Toronto, said China has been Action on Canada. ”
He said Trump may abandon tariffs once he realizes that this may not achieve his goal of bringing manufacturing and job opportunities in the United States.
“It’s not impossible to go to the middle,” he said.
If the dust is not clear, what will happen if the dust settles, but many analysts like Wang say that at least the U.S.-China relationship is “beyond redemption.”
“There is a chance to completely collapse,” she said.
This may mean that China now has more opportunities to play a bigger role in the world. The West may have no choice but to accept it.
